Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece

Zanis, Prodromos; Kapsomenakis, I.; Philandras, C. M.; Douvis, Kostas C.; Nikolakis, D. J.; Kanellopoulou, E.; Zerefos, C. S.; Repapis, C. C.

doi:10.1002/joc.1809

Cited by 58 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…Dehn and Buma, 1999;Schoof and Pryor, 2001;Buishand et al, 2004;Tatli et al, 2004, Loukas et al, 2008. Future work is to test the developed methodology with the results of Regional Climate Models (PRUDENCE, ENSEM-BLES EU), which, for Central Eastern Greece underestimate annual precipitation by about 33±19% (Zanis et al, 2008). The monthly and annual precipitation future projections of the present study lie within the range of respective calculations from various GCMs (IPCC, 2007) and are comparable with the results for the period 2070-2100 and SRES A2 scenario of the nine RCMs used for simulating future annual precipitation in Central Eastern Greece, (−13.5%, this study; −15.8%, Zanis et al, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a recent study, where climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation were investigated on Greece using nine Regional Climate Models (RCMs), mean annual temperature will be increased by 3.7 • C and precipitation will be decreased by 15.8% for the period 2070-2100. The inter-annual variability of temperature will be increased in summer and reduced at winter, whereas summer precipitation variability for future climate is decreasing for the majority of the RCMs (Zanis et al, 2008). These pronounced changes in precipitation and temperature will have subsequent effects on droughts in the region.…”

Section: Study Area and Characteristics Of Droughts In The Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts

Vasiliades

Λουκάς

Patsonas

2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Despite uncertainties in future climates, there is considerable evidence that there will be substantial impacts on the environment and human interests. Climate change will affect the hydrology of a region through changes in the timing, amount, and form of precipitation, evaporation and transpiration rates, and soil moisture, which in turn affect also the drought characteristics in a region. Droughts are long-term phenomena affecting large regions causing significant damages both in human lives and economic losses. The most widely used approach in regional climate impact studies is to combine the output of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) with an impact model. The outputs of Global Circulation Model CGCMa2 were applied for two socioeconomic scenarios, namely, SRES A2 and SRES B2 for the assessment of climate change impact on droughts. In this study, a statistical downscaling method has been applied for monthly precipitation. The methodology is based on multiple regression of GCM predictant variables with observed precipitation developed in an earlier paper (Loukas et al., 2008) and the application of a stochastic timeseries model for precipitation residuals simulation (white noise). The methodology was developed for historical period and validated against observed monthly precipitation for period 1990-2002 in Lake Karla watershed, Thessaly, Greece. The validation indicated the accuracy of the methodology and the uncertainties propagated by the downscaling procedure in the estimation of a meteorological drought index the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales. Subsequently, monthly precipitation and SPI were estimated for two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100. The results of the present study indicate the accuracy, reliability and uncertainty of the statistical downscaling method for the assessment of climate change on hydrological, agricultural and Correspondence to: A. Loukas (aloukas@civ.uth.gr) water resources droughts. Results show that climate change will have a major impact on droughts but the uncertainty introduced is quite large and is increasing as SPI timescale increases. Larger timescales of SPI, which, are used to monitor hydrological and water resources droughts, are more sensitive to climate change than smaller timescales, which, are used to monitor meteorological and agricultural droughts. Future drought predictions should be handled with caution and their uncertainty should always be evaluated as results demonstrate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Area and Characteristics Of Droughts In The Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts

Vasiliades

Λουκάς

Patsonas

2009

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Climate change in conjunction with environmental protection dictates the necessity for comprehensive actions and enhanced research activities in environmental issues [1][2][3]. Climatological maps are very promising scientific tools in the reconstruction of long-term environmental conditions occurring at different geographical areas; such maps can help local authorities to issue appropriate environmental policies (e.g., [4]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fire-Risk Assessment in Northern Greece Using a Modified Fosberg Fire-Weather Index That Includes Forest Coverage

Kambezidis

Kalliampakos

2016

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

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The spatial distribution of the monthly mean values for various climatological parameters in Northern Greece is derived. The corresponding data come from measurements at several meteorological stations located in Central Macedonia, Eastern Macedonia, and Thrace (CM/EMT) area in the period 1975-1997. The collected data concern high temperature and low relative humidity, as well as local forest coverage, and are utilized for the calculation of a modified Fosberg Fire-Weather Index in order to estimate the fire risk over Northern Greece due to the local weather under critical conditions. As a result, monthly fire-risk maps of the CM/EMT area for the months of May to October are derived for the first time by applying sophisticated analytical geospatial tools and methods. Furthermore, fire events corresponding to the same region and period are added to the derived maps for comparison and for a better evaluation of the method. The resulting correspondence of the predicted fire risk to the local wind-speed behavior and forest abundance demonstrates the need of the necessary precaution measures to limit the future danger levels from fire events.

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“…Many researchers demonstrate that the development of either statistical or dynamical downscaling methodologies could give a more thorough insight of the expected future changes in the Mediterranean area (Somot et al, 2006;Kostopoulou et al, 2007;Krichak et al, 2007;Giorgi and Lionello, 2008;Herting and Jacobeit, 2008;Tolika et al, 2008;Zanis et al, 2009). It is expected that the higher the resolution is the better should be the skill of the model in capturing more successfully the microclimate characteristics of each of the Mediterranean sub-regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand an increase of the extreme precipitation indices is expected which will be more pronounced during the winter months Tolika et al, 2008). Similarly to the rest of the Mediterranean area, Greece is expected to experience an increase in maximum, minimum and mean temperature, especially during summer (Zanis et al, 2009) as well as in the frequency of occurrence of heat waves will increase until the end of the 21 st century (Tolika et al, 2009). Researchers agree that the use of a general circulation model only, cannot provide detailed regional information in the Greek region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections form ensembles of RCMs

2013

Issue 4

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The potential regional future changes in seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation are assessed for the greater area of Greece over the 21 st century, under A2, A1B and B2 future emission scenarios of IPCC. Totally twenty-two simulations from various regional climate models (RCMs) were assessed; fourteen of them with a spatial grid resolution of 50km for the period 2071-2100 under A2 (9 simulations) and B2 (5 simulations) scenarios and eight of them with an even finer resolution of 25km under A1B scenario for both 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 time periods. The future changes in temperature and precipitation were calculated with respect to the control period . All the models estimated warmer and dryer conditions over the study area. The warming is more intense during the summer months, with the changes being larger in the continental than in the marine area of Greece. In terms of precipitation, the simulations of the RCMs estimate a decrease up to -60% (A2 scenario). Finally it is shown that the changes in the atmospheric circulation over Europe play a key role in the changes of the future precipitation and temperature characteristics over the domain of study in a consistent way for the different emission scenarios.

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Analysis of an ensemble of present day and future regional climate simulations for Greece

Cited by 58 publications

References 48 publications

Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts

Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts

Fire-Risk Assessment in Northern Greece Using a Modified Fosberg Fire-Weather Index That Includes Forest Coverage

Regional climate change scenarios for Greece: future temperature and precipitation projections form ensembles of RCMs

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