Analysis and visualization of meteorological extremes in humid subtropical regions

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak; Tiwari, Harinarayan; Mishra, P. K.

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04700-1

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Sneyers introduced the SQMK test to analyze the significant change points in longterm time series [57][58][59][60][61][62]. The abrupt change in the trend is analyzed by the forward (SF) and backward (SB) sequential series.…”

Section: The Sequential Mann-kendall Test (Sqmk) Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Rebi

Hussain

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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The effects of climate change are unparalleled in magnitude, ranging from changing weather patterns that endanger food production to increasing sea levels that increase the likelihood of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, determining the extent of such variations on regional and local scales is imperative. We used monthly precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in northern Pakistan (NP) to document the observed changes in seasonal and annual precipitation. The station density in the NP is small and unevenly distributed; therefore, ERA-5 reanalysis data were used to supplement the observed dataset to assess the spatial trends in NP. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE), and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) tests were performed to assess the trends. In addition, the wavelet analysis technique was used to determine the association of precipitation with various oceanic indices from 1960 to 2016. Results indicate that maximum precipitation was shown in the annual and summer seasons. In NP, annual, winter, spring, and summer precipitation declined, while an increase in autumn was observed at a rate of 0.43 mm/decade between 1989 and 2016. The spatial trends for observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets were almost similar in winter, spring, and autumn; however, some disagreement was observed in both datasets in the summer and annual precipitation trends in NP during 1960–2016. Between 1989 and 2016, summer and annual precipitation increased significantly in Region III. However, seasonal and annual precipitation decreased in NP between 1960 and 2016. Moreover, there were no prominent trends in annual precipitation until the mid-1980s, but an apparent increase from 1985 onwards. Annual precipitation increased in all elevations except at the 500–1000 m zone. The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) shared notable interannual coherences among all indices above 16–64 months. Inter-decadal coherence with the ENSO, AO (Arctic Oscillation), and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in NP for 128 months and above. Generally, AO, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) exhibited less coherence with precipitation in NP. The regression of seasonal and annual precipitation revealed that winter and spring precipitation levels had higher linear regression with the AO and ENSO, respectively, while both the AO and ENSO also dominated at the annual scale. Similarly, the IOD and PDO indices had a higher influence in summer precipitation. The findings may help water resource managers and climate researchers develop a contingency plan for better water resource management policies in the face of changing climate change in Pakistan, particularly in NP.

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Section: The Sequential Mann-kendall Test (Sqmk) Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Rebi

Hussain

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, with a majority lying in Madhya Pradesh. The length of the river is 1312 km, making it one of the longest rivers of the Indian sub-continent (Gupta 2001;Pandey et al 2019Pandey et al , 2021aPandey et al , 2021bSwain et al 2019;Thomas et al 2015). It is the major west-flowing river of India.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Inclusion of groundwater and socio-economic factors for assessing comprehensive drought vulnerability over Narmada River Basin, India: A geospatial approach

et al. 2022

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Drought is amongst the most precarious natural hazards associated with severe repercussions. The characterization of droughts is usually carried out by the sector-specific (meteorological/agricultural/hydrological) indices that are mostly based on hydroclimatic variables. Groundwater is the major source of water supply during drought periods, and the socio-economic factors control the aftermaths of droughts; however, they are often ignored by the sector-specific indices, thereby failing to capture the overall impacts of droughts. This study aims to circumvent this issue by incorporating hydroclimatic, socio-economic and physiographic information to assess the overall drought vulnerability over Narmada River Basin, India, which is an agriculture-dominated basin highly dependent on groundwater resources. A Comprehensive Drought Vulnerability Indicator (CDVI) is proposed that assimilates the information on meteorological fluctuations, depth to groundwater level, slope, distance from river reach, population density, land use/land cover, soil type, and elevation through a geospatial approach. The CDVI showed a remarkable geospatial variation over the basin, with a majority (66.4%) of the area under highly to extremely vulnerable conditions. Out of 35 constituent districts of the basin, 9, 22, and 4 districts exhibited moderate, high, and extreme vulnerability to droughts, respectively. These results urge an immediate attention towards reducing drought vulnerability and enhancing resilience towards drought occurrences. The proposed multi-dimensional approach for drought vulnerability mapping would certainly help policy-makers to proactively plan and manage water resources over the basin, especially to ameliorate the pernicious impacts of droughts.

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“…Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), another trend-setting method suggested by Şen (2012), has been frequently used to determine the trend of hydrological and meteorological time series in recent years (Wu and Qian, 2017;Caloiero, 2018;Marinović et al, 2021;Pandey et al, 2021). Compared to monotonic trend analysis methods, this method allows the graphical evaluation of the trends for different ranges (e.g., low, medium, and high) in the time series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey

et al. 2023

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In this study, trend analyses of six climatic variables (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) for 1966-2020 are conducted for the Southeastern Anatolia Region, which is the main focus of the integrated development project in Turkey (Turkish acronym GAP). The trends for seasonal and annual periods are determined using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and Sen's slope method and regression analyses are used to find the trends' slopes. Moreover, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) is also used to find the time series changes for low, medium, and high values. As a result of the analyses, the mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures in the GAP region show increasing trends according to both methods. Significant trends are obtained at a limited number of stations for the precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed with the MK test, while consistent decreasing trends are found at most stations with the ITA method.

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Analysis and visualization of meteorological extremes in humid subtropical regions

Cited by 8 publications

References 47 publications

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

Inclusion of groundwater and socio-economic factors for assessing comprehensive drought vulnerability over Narmada River Basin, India: A geospatial approach

Evaluation of meteorological time series trends in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey

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