Analysis and Trend Estimation of Rainfall and Seasonality Index for Marathwada Region

Abstract

Droughts are undesirable and highly unwanted form of disasters. It is essential to analyse the cause of such extreme events and act accordingly to pave the way for a sustainable future. The present research work conducts a seasonality and trend analysis of rainfall over the eight districts of Marathwada region. The study is carried out for the last 39 years ranging from 1980 to 2018. The rainfall data pertaining to pre-monsoon season, monsoon season (Kharif), and annual average have been analysed. The trend has been estimated using Sen's slope estimation process along with Mann-Kendal test. It was determined that the all the eight districts of the region show a negative trend in the annual rainfall received. Nanded district showed the largest negative trend in the annual rainfall. Out of eight districts seven districts of the region show a decline in rainfall during the monsoon season. The district of Nanded showed largest decline in the rainfall received during monsoon season. The research work presents the discussion on possible causes of such trends estimated. The research creates a robust foundation of advanced computation techniques for prediction of droughts.