Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamic changes in China: Past, present and future

Zhou, Zhaoqiang; Ding, Yibo; Shi, Haiyun; Cai, Huanjie; Fu, Qiang; Liu, Suning; Li, Tianxiao

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106642

Cited by 109 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The MK trend analysis method is a nonparametric test method, which is often used to identify the trend of time series. It has been widely used in the field of hydrometeorology (Fu et al., 2018; Zhou, Ding, et al., 2020; Zhou, Shi, Fu, Li, Gan, Liu, & Liu, 2020). Moreover, Sen's slope method is often used together with the MK method to further determine the trend magnitude of time series (Shi et al., 2017; Zhou, Shi, Fu, Li, Gan, & Liu, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Propagation From Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought in the Pearl River Basin

Zhou

Shi

et al. 2021

JGR Atmospheres

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Propagation From Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought in the Pearl River Basin

Zhou

Shi

et al. 2021

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Areas with a negative trend of residual values showed strong consistency with the urban and rural distribution, indicating that the vegetation near settlements was more severely negatively disturbed by anthropogenic activity such as urban expansion and road construction during rapid economic development and population growth. The Chinese and Mongolian governments have implemented efforts towards increased environmental protection and ecological restoration [57]. These efforts have stabilised the land degradation that was occurring in the Mongolian Plateau.…”

Section: Vegetation Responses To Anthropogenic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

NDVI Indicates Long-Term Dynamics of Vegetation and Its Driving Forces from Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors in Mongolian Plateau

Guo

Wang

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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In recent years, global warming and intense human activity have been responsible for significantly altering vegetation dynamics on the Mongolian Plateau. Understanding the long-term vegetation dynamics in this region is important to assess the impact of these changes on the local ecosystem. Long-term (1982–2015), satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets were used to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation activities using linear regression and the breaks for additive season and trend methods. The links between these patterns and changes in temperature, precipitation (PRE), soil moisture (SM), and anthropogenic activity were determined using partial correlation analysis, the residual trends method, and a stepwise multiple regression model. The most significant results indicated that air temperature and potential evapotranspiration increased significantly, while the SM and PRE had markedly decreased over the past 34 years. The NDVI dataset included 71.16% of pixels showing an increase in temperature and evaporation during the growing season, particularly in eastern Mongolia and the southern border of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous region, China. The proportion indicating the breakpoint of vegetation dynamics was 71.34% of pixels, and the trend breakpoints mainly occurred in 1993, 2003, and 2010. The cumulative effects of PRE and SM in the middle period, coupled with the short-term effects of temperature and potential evapotranspiration, have had positive effects on vegetation greening. Anthropogenic factors appear to have positively impacted vegetation dynamics, as shown in 81.21% of pixels. We consider rapid economic growth, PRE, and SM to be the main driving factors in Inner Mongolia. PRE was the main climatic factor, and combined human and livestock populations were the primary anthropogenic factors influencing vegetation dynamics in Mongolia. This study is important in promoting the continued use of green projects to address environmental change in the Mongolian Plateau.

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“…Because actual evapotranspiration is difficult to predict directly, researchers typically calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) first when calculating the crop-water demand [3][4][5]. It is important for agricultural management departments to study the long-term variation in trends of ET 0 and their relationship to climate factors [6,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in Reference Evapotranspiration over the Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2017: Spatiotemporal Variations, Future Trends and Links to Other Climatic Factors

Liu

Wang

Yao

et al. 2020

Water

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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key factor in the hydrological cycle and energy cycle. In the context of rapid climate change, studying the dynamic changes in ET0 in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great significance for water resource management in Asian countries. This study uses the Penman–Monteith formula to calculate the daily ET0 of the TP and subsequently uses the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, cumulative anomaly curve, and sliding t-test to identify abrupt change points. Morlet wavelet analysis and the Hurst index based on rescaled range analysis (R/S) are utilized to predict the future trends of ET0. The Spearman correlation coefficient is used to explore the relationship between ET0 changes and other climate factors. The results show that the ET0 on the TP exhibited an increasing trend from 1961 to 2017, with the most significant increase occurring in winter; an abrupt change to a tendency to decrease occurred in 1988, and another abrupt change to a tendency to increase occurred in 2005. Spatially, the ET0 of the TP shows an increasing trend from east to west. The change trend of the ET0 on the TP will not be sustainable into the future. In addition, the mean temperature has the greatest impact on the ET0 changes in the TP.

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Analysis and prediction of vegetation dynamic changes in China: Past, present and future

Cited by 109 publications

References 65 publications

Characteristics of Propagation From Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought in the Pearl River Basin

Characteristics of Propagation From Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought in the Pearl River Basin

NDVI Indicates Long-Term Dynamics of Vegetation and Its Driving Forces from Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors in Mongolian Plateau

Variation in Reference Evapotranspiration over the Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2017: Spatiotemporal Variations, Future Trends and Links to Other Climatic Factors

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