Analysis and prediction of LUCC change in Huang-Huai-Hai river basin

Wang, Jianwei; Wang, Kun; Qin, Tianling; Nie, Hanjiang; Lv, Zhenyu; Liu, Fang; Shi, Xinzheng; Hu, Yong

doi:10.1515/geo-2020-0112

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…We used the FLUS model to simulate the future land use/cover, which was a comprehensive model for land use/cover simulation by coupling anthropogenic and nonhuman effects (free obtained at http://www.geosimulation.cn/flus.html (accessed on 12 October 2008 to 12 October 2023) [41]. This model based on the Cellular Automata (CA) theory, but with great perfections over the conventional CA, makes land use/cover simulation with higher accuracy, and more convenient and efficient [42][43][44].…”

Section: Flus Model Simulation and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

et al. 2021

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Ecosystem service values are closely related to land use/cover change, however, the values affected by land use/cover change in the context of climate variability remain unclear. Based on the land use/cover data of 2000, 2010, and 2020 in the Yiluo River Basin, we quantitatively analyzed the impacts of historical land use/cover change on the ecosystem service values. Then the future land use simulation model was applied to predict the land use/cover distribution in 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, and the influences on ecosystem service values were analyzed further. We found that the total ecosystem service values in the Yiluo River Basin presented a growth from 9217 million dollars (2000) to 9676 million dollars (2020), which attributed to the increase of forestland and water bodies in recent years. By 2030, the total ecosystem service values continued to present an upward trend, while also showing a difference under three scenarios, this discrepancy was mainly caused by different precipitation conditions. With the introduction of the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin in the new period, climate change may be the main factors affecting the ecological field in the future.

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Section: Flus Model Simulation and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

et al. 2021

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“…In addition, the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation governs the ecohydrological processes [46]. Changes in temperature and precipitation caused by climate change will affect vegetation growth and the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources [47]. An unbalanced distribution of precipitation implies the emergence of drought, while a low soil humidity results in the devastation of vegetation cover [48].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Variability in Hydroclimate over the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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As global warming produces dramatic climate changes, water management is facing increasingly serious challenges. Given to the process of climate change and its complex effects on watershed hydrology, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of major climatic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) over the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB), China. The statistical analyses are based on annual and seasonal scales during 1951–2020 with a recorded period of seven decades. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and R/S analysis are used to record the temporal trends (past and future) of climate variables; the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test and Buishand test are used to detect the homogeneity in climate series. The sensitivities of the streamflow to climatic parameters are assessed at the watershed scale, especially considering the Three Gorges Dam’s (TGD) effect on changing runoff. The results of the study indicate that the annual precipitation of 29 out of 34 series indicate homogeneity, while 31 out of 34 annual mean temperature series show heterogeneity, with jump points around 1997 in the mean temperature of 20 sites. Detectable changes in precipitation were not observed during 1951–2020; however, the temperature increased significantly in the whole basin on annual and seasonal scales, except for several stations in the eastern part. The magnitude of increase in air temperature in high altitudes (Tibet Plateau) is higher than that in low altitudes (Sichuan Plain) over the last seven decades, and future temperatures continue to sharply increase in high altitudes. The TGD plays an important role in explaining the seasonal variations in streamflow at Yichang station, with streamflow experiencing a sharp increase in winter and spring (dry season) and a decrease in summer and autumn (rainy season) compared to the pre-TGD period. The streamflow variation at an annual scale is mainly regulated by climate fluctuation (variation in precipitation). During the last seven decades, increasing air temperature and decreases in rainfall and runoff signify reduced water resources availability, and the climate tends to be warmer and drier over the basin. The sensitivity of the streamflow to watershed precipitation is higher than that to temperature, with variation in annual rainfall explaining 71% of annual runoff variability.

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“…Climate change might have a crucial impact on water resource system vulnerability. The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change pointed out that climate change, population growth, and economic activities have adverse impacts on water resource systems [7], and since the 21st century, the economic development of the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin has driven the process of urbanization, and great changes have taken place in land-use types [8]. Under the impact factors of changing environments, such as climate change and human activities, the total amounts of water and land resources available are changing in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, which could lead to risks in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Spatial and Temporal Assessment of the Water–Land Nexus in a Changing Environment: The Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin (China)

Liu

Bao

Wang

et al. 2022

Water

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In addition to agriculture, the water–land nexus (WLN) also profoundly affects the sustainable development of industry and residents’ lives. However, little research has been designed to assess the water–land nexus from the perspective of industry development and people’s quality of life. In the current paper, Wi, a regional industrial water–land nexus matching index, and Wd, a matching index of the domestic water–land nexus, were proposed for evaluating the water–land nexus from the industry development and quality of life perspectives separately in the current paper. Furthermore, climate change and human activities have significant impacts on the water–land nexus. The WLNs were assessed spatially and temporally for the first time based on these two indexes in 128 municipalities in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin of China from 1951 to 2017 to analyze the impacts of the changing environment on them. The impact of changing environment was explored based on changes of some climate factors and land use. The value of Wi are higher in the eastern and southern cities than the western and northern cities, while Zhenjiang city in Jiangsu Province has the highest Wi. For Wd, there are two low Wd zones across the basin, while the minimum values occurred in Linxia Hui Autonomous Region (Wd = 35.34 mm). Wi and Wd in most cities in the basin showed a significant downward trend, and some cities in the southwest of the basin have the fastest-decreasing of Wd. Wt and Wa were also calculated to assess the total and agricultural water–land nexus separately based on existing research. The Wt for the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin gradually increases from northwest to southeast, and its spatial distribution characteristics are similar to precipitation in the river basin. In addition, the government should simultaneously implement water transfer plans to reduce the agricultural water pressure in Ningxia and Gansu provinces. Dynamic driving factors of change of the four assessment indexes (Wt, Wa, Wi, Wd) are briefly analyzed in the end of the paper.

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Analysis and prediction of LUCC change in Huang-Huai-Hai river basin

Cited by 7 publications

References 46 publications

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

Analysis and Prediction of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover Change in the Yiluo River Basin

Spatio-Temporal Variability in Hydroclimate over the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

The Spatial and Temporal Assessment of the Water–Land Nexus in a Changing Environment: The Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin (China)

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