Analysis and Prediction for Chrysalis Silk Price Index Based on the Improved GM (1, 1) Model and the Grey-Markov Model

Abstract

This paper is using the cocoon filament prices index from the website named the east-sericulture-shift-to-west engineering information system as the research background, seeking for the quantitative analysis and forecast of the cocoon filament price index and making forecast and evaluation for market operation. This paper respectively establishes the improved GM(1,1) model and Grey-Markov model and compares the prediction results of the two models. When using the Grey-Markov model, the data prediction accuracy is higher and it can reflect the volatility of the data.