Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological models (Preprint)

Abstract

UNSTRUCTURED In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia. The epidemiological parameters were estimated using MCMC methods. Among the migrant population, 1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission, which constituted 67801 migrants. A proportion of migrants, 6.3773e-04 were estimated to be HIV infected, constituting 278 migrants. There were 72 (per 10000) migrants estimated to have had AIDS, representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08. The result suggest that the disease-free steady state was unstable because the basic reproduction number was 2.0906 and 1.4861 for the models without and with migration, respectively. Based on the findings, this is not a good indicator from the public health point of view, as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. The models analysed considerably well reflected the dynamical behaviour of the HIV epidemic field data in Malaysia. We recommend that a national programme should be implemented by the government in collaboration with the Malaysian Immigration Department to reduce HIV/AIDS transmission by more closely monitoring migrant activities. It is our view that the models would be useful to tackle other problems, other diseases.