Analysing India’s Export Competitiveness in ASEAN Economies: Insights from Viner’s Trade Creation Model

Abstract

Both India and ASEAN are characterised by dynamic market economies and have implemented extensive reforms to deepen their economic integration. Despite the existing economic links between them, this article acknowledges that the trade relations are significant but fall short of their full potential. In this context, the present study utilises a modified trade creation approach to estimate India’s export potential at the sectoral level with individual ASEAN member states for the years 2010 and 2021. The analysis has identified five most significant trading partners in the region, namely, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, which together represent substantial trading opportunities in the five broad sectors such as Machinery, Chemical products, Base metals, Plastics, Minerals. Additionally, this article explores ASEAN’s GVC linkages with India vis-à-vis world at an aggregate and sectoral level over the last decade. We base our analysis on the P&C using the UN Broad Economic Category (BEC) product classification, concorded with HS trade classification. The findings reveal a marginal decline in the region’s share of GVC trade with India relative to its global GVC trade. JEL Classification: F10, F14, F15