“…Among them are the wind speed above various thresholds (Skok and Hladnik, 2018), the severe convection ensemble-based extreme forecast index (Tsonevsky et al, 2018), cloud cover (Mittermaier and Bullock, 2013), heat waves (Lee et al, 2016), updraft helicity (Sobash et al, 2011(Sobash et al, , 2016Clark et al, 2013;Yussouf et al, 2013), hail (Gagne et al, 2015;Snook et al, 2016), low-level vertical vorticity (e.g. Snook et al, 2015;Yussouf et al, 2015;Zhuang et al, 2016), and so on. In the absence of a standard ensemble, these fields can be addressed probabilistically using smoothed TLE.…”