Analogous Forecasting of Products with a Short Life Cycle

Szozda, Natalia

doi:10.7494/dmms.2010.4.2.71

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…3. The existence of short-life-cycle products, e.g., smartphone demand (e.g., Szozda, 2010;Chung et al, 2012;Shi et al, 2020). 81 This subsection was written by Yanfei Kang.…”

Section: Demand Management 81mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice.

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“…3. The existence of short-life-cycle products, e.g., smartphone demand (e.g., Szozda, 2010;Chung et al, 2012;Shi et al, 2020). 81 This subsection was written by Yanfei Kang.…”

Section: Demand Management 81mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Having data of a personal computer manufacturer in the USA, they did the evaluation and implemented the forecasting algorithm. Natalia (2010) developed a method that allows forecasters to use lifecycles of similar, analogous products to arrive at the initial forecasts for the products at hand [4]. Kurawarwala et al (1996Kurawarwala et al ( , 1998) considered a seasonal factor on the basis of computer industry [1,5].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Forecasting Algorithm for Spare Parts of Short Life Cycle Products Based on EMD-SVM

Fan

et al. 2013

2013 International Conference on Information Science and Cloud Computing Companion

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Demand of spare parts of short life cycle products has great random fluctuation and short life cycle. Traditional forecasting methods have low forecasting accuracy which leads to understock or overstock of spare parts. Considering such situation an improved forecasting method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Support Vector Machine (IEMD-SVM) is proposed. By replacing the Cubic Spline Interpolation in the standard EMD with Piecewise Cubic Hermite Interpolation, the overshoots and undershoots problems caused by great volatility of data are solved. Experiments with 459 real data sets show that the IEMD-SVM forecasting method has a better forecasting result than traditional forecasting methods which provides better decision supports for enterprise inventory management.

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“…The concept of analog forecasting was introduced by Lorenz in 1969 [52] in application to the states of the atmosphere. This concept was later also used in economic forecasting, e.g., [53][54][55]. There are four main analog forecasting methods in the literature [56]:…”

Section: Analog Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting Based on Analog Method and Fuzzy Decision Tree

Gaweł

Paliński

2021

Energies

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Classic forecasting methods of natural gas consumption extrapolate trends from the past to subsequent periods of time. The paper presents a different approach that uses analogues to create long-term forecasts of the annual natural gas consumption. The energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of Gross Domestic Product—GDP) and gas share in energy mix in some countries, usually more developed, are the starting point for forecasts of other countries in the later period. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of cluster analysis to create similar groups of countries and periods based on two indicators: energy intensity of GDP and share of natural gas consumption in the energy mix, and then the use of fuzzy decision trees for classifying countries in different years into clusters based on several other economic indicators. The final long-term forecasts are obtained with the use of fuzzy decision trees by combining the forecasts for different fuzzy sets made by the method of relative chain increments. The forecast accuracy of our method is higher than that of other benchmark methods. The proposed method may be an excellent tool for forecasting long-term territorial natural gas consumption for any administrative unit.

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Analogous Forecasting of Products with a Short Life Cycle

Cited by 12 publications

References 18 publications

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice

An Improved Forecasting Algorithm for Spare Parts of Short Life Cycle Products Based on EMD-SVM

Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting Based on Analog Method and Fuzzy Decision Tree

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