Análise Quantitativa das Demandas de Mercado no Cenário de Crise: Um estudo do Mercado Imobiliário da cidade de Fortaleza-CE

Abstract

The behavior of the current real estate sector is a reflection of the economic situation and the internal dynamics of the consumer market, which has suffered the consequences of the downturn since 2014. In order to better understand this context, this study aimed to study the historical series of real estate market performance in Fortaleza in the last 36 months, as well as to understand the results obtained from the tabulations of these data. The information presented shows that, although there is still a timid resumption of the market, the decision for the development of new ventures has shown growth. However, the decision must be based on a market study that allows entrepreneurs to obtain greater assertiveness in the return of these investments. The better understanding of constructive characteristics, such as: building typology, unit area and location, as well as the speed of sale, can contribute to the identification of the most appropriate time to invest, being a fundamental factor in the mitigation of risks, taking into account long-term return on investment. The understanding of the seasonality of the market, through analysis of the time series that generate the market trends, allows the development of better future scenarios, thus allowing to adopt more conservative positions applied to new launches. From this perspective, a data base composed of 250 enterprises and 60 construction companies was studied and analyzed in the period from 2015 to 2017. As main results, it was observed the increase in distractions accompanied by the increase in real estate sales that the appreciation of the price of the square meter reduced real estate inventories, that smaller units had a higher selling speed and that there was an increase in demand in peripheral areas to the most valued areas. Based on this information, the developers will be able to make better decisions about what features the new releases should have.