Análise dos Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas em Região Semi-árida

Medeiros, Yvonilde Dantas Pinto

doi:10.21168/rbrh.v8n2.p127-136

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…The results obtained with the present study is in accordance to other ones conducted in different parts of the world, as in Columbia river basin, in USA (Marks et al, 1993), in northern Jalisco, México (Ibarra-Montoya et al, 2011), in La Pampa province, Argentina (Pérez and Sierra, 2012), in Louess Plateau of China (Li et al, 2011), and in Brazil, like in Taubaté, in the Paraíba Valley (Horikoshi and Fisch, 2007), in the Occidental Amazon (Liberato and Brito, 2010), and in the Northeast semi-arid region (Medeiros, 2003). However, the results presented in this study is much more drastic then presented by these authors, which is related to the fact that the climate change scenarios were applied in all the historical series of rainfall data (from 1979 to 2008) in a 10-day time scale and not only in the monthly normal data.…”

Section: Climate Characteristics Of the Studied Areas: Future Scenariossupporting

confidence: 92%

“…So, any change in the water balance variables, mainly rainfall and/or evapotranspiration, will promote changes in the plant water consumption. Based on the results of Marks et al (1993), Medeiros (2003) and Villani et al (2011), an increase in air temperature will lead to a higher evapotranspiration which in a non-changing rainfall regime or in a scenario of less rainfall will promote an increase in the water deficit for plants and, as consequence, a decrease in crop yield by a reduced evapotranspiration. Also, any change in the rainfall regime, with an increase or a decrease in the precipitation amount will result in changes in the water balance (Horikoshi and Fisch, 2007), with positive or negative impacts on agriculture.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Santos¹,

Sentelhas²

2012

Ambi-Agua

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The evidence of climate changes has increased the demand for biofuel such as the ethanol from sugarcane, which has major comparative advantages in economic and environmental terms in relation to other biofuel sources. The sugarcane production in the State of São Paulo is highly influenced by the soil water availability, which is the main factor causing inter-annual yield variability. With the expected climate change, the crop water balance in the sugarcane production regions may be affected, which will also bring consequences for crop production. Based on that, the objective of this study was to assess the impacts of different climate changes scenarios on potential (ETP) and actual (ETA) evapotranspiration, as well as on water deficit (WD) and water surplus (WS) for four sugarcane production regions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. For that, twelve climate changes scenarios, with increasing temperatures and rainfall variation, were considered for the years of 2030, 2060 and 2090, based on 2007 IPCC´s report. The results indicated that ETP will increase substantially as a function of higher air temperatures projected for the future scenarios. However, for ETA the elevation will not be so intense due to the variations projected for the rainfall scenarios. In general, the expectation is the reduction of the soil water availability in all locations by 2090, with substantial increase in the WD, around 550, 650, 530 e 720 mm for the worst scenario in relation to the present conditions, respectively for Araçatuba, Assis, Jaboticabal and Piracicaba.Keywords: Global warming, climatological water balance, evapotranspiration, water deficit. Cenários de Mudanças Climáticas e seus Impactos no Balanço Hídrico de Regiões Canavieiras do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil RESUMOOs indícios de mudanças climáticas tem elevado a demanda por álcool proveniente da cana-de-açúcar que apresenta grandes vantagens comparativas em termos econômicos e ambientais em relação a outros biocombustíveis. A produção da cana-de-açúcar no Estado de São Paulo é altamente influenciada pela disponibilidade de água no solo, sendo este o principal fator responsável pela variabilidade interanual da sua produtividade. Sendo assim, as mudanças climáticas deverão impactar o balanço hídrico das regiões produtoras e, consequentemente, a produção da cana-de-açúcar. Desse modo, o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar os impactos dos cenários projetados de mudanças climáticas na evapotranspiração potencial (ETP) e real (ETA), no déficit hídrico (WD) e no excedente hídrico (WS) de quatro SANTOS, D. L.; SENTELHAS, P. C. Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on the Water Balance of Sugarcane Production Areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. Ambi-Agua, Taubaté, v. 7, n. 2, p. 7-17, 2012

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Section: Climate Characteristics Of the Studied Areas: Future Scenariossupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Santos¹,

Sentelhas²

2012

Ambi-Agua

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“…Medeiros (2003) has applied a distributed model to study the hydrological behaviour of a semi‐arid catchment in the north‐east of Brazil, including analysis of impacts of climate change on water resources availability. Forecasts from GCMs have pointed out likely increases in temperature and reductions in rainfall, which would probably affect the availability of water resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study

Montenegro

Ragab

2010

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:Brazilian semi-arid regions are characterized by water scarcity, vulnerability to desertification, and climate variability. The investigation of hydrological processes in this region is of major interest not only for water planning strategies but also to address the possible impact of future climate and land-use changes on water resources. A hydrological distributed catchmentscale model (DiCaSM) has been applied to simulate hydrological processes in a small representative catchment of the Brazilian northeast semi-arid region, and also to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes, as well as changes associated with biofuel/energy crops production. The catchment is part of the Brazilian network for semi-arid hydrology, established by the Brazilian Federal Government. Estimating and modelling streamflow (STF) and recharge in semi-arid areas is a challenging task, mainly because of limitation in in situ measurements, and also due to the local nature of some processes. Direct recharge measurements are very difficult in semi-arid catchments and contain a high level of uncertainty. The latter is usually addressed by short-and long-time-scale calibration and validation at catchment scale, as well as by examining the model sensitivity to the physical parameters responsible for the recharge. The DiCaSM model was run from 2000 to 2008, and streamflow was successfully simulated, with a Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient of 0Ð73, and R 2 of 0Ð79. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios for the region, the DiCaSM model forecasted a reduction by 35%, 68%, and 77%, in groundwater recharge (GWR), and by 34%, 65%, and 72%, in streamflow, for the time spans 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099, respectively, could take place for a dry future climate scenario. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Introducing castor beans to the catchment would increase the GWR and streamflow, mainly if the caatinga areas would be converted into castor beans production. Changing an area of 1000 ha from caatinga to castor beans would increase the GWR by 46% and streamflow by 3%. If the same area of pasture is converted into castor beans, there would be an increase in GWR and streamflow by 24% and 5%, respectively. Such results are expected to contribute towards environmental policies for north-east Brazil (NEB), and to biofuel production perspectives in the region.

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“…A mesma situação foi verifi cada por Medeiros (2003), que avaliou os impactos das mudanças climáticas com o modelo estocástico de precipitação, para transferir as alterações na precipitação, gerada por um modelo de circulação global da atmosfera, na bacia do rio Paraguaçu, no Estado da Bahia, e concluiu que os impactos hidrológicos na bacia do estudo eram mais fortemente controlados pelas reduções na precipitação do que pelos acréscimos da temperatura.…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

Mudanças climáticas e impactos na necessidade hídrica das culturas perenes na Bacia do Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará

Gondim

Castro

Evangelista

et al. 2008

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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Resumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os impactos das mudanças climáticas na demanda de água para irrigação de culturas perenes, na Bacia do Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará. Foi empregado o sistema integrado de modelagem regional PRECIS ("Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies"), e aplicado o método de redução de escala de bacia hidrográfi ca, com as condições de contorno do modelo climático regional (HadRM3P). Foi utilizado um conjunto de climatologia de base do modelo de 1961 a 1990 e de projeções climáticas futuras. As coordenadas geográfi cas da região em estudo foram consideradas para interpolação num sistema de informação geográfi ca. A evapotranspiração de referência foi estimada por meio de dados da temperatura média mensal. As mudanças climáticas projetadas aumentaram a demanda projetada de água para irrigação, porque a evapotranspiração foi estimada para aumentos de 3,1 a 2,2% e a precipitação pluvial foi estimada para diminuições de 30,9 a 37,3%. O aumento da necessidade hídrica foi estimada em 32,9% a 43,9%, para o ano de 2040, conforme o cenário analisado.Termos para indexação: evapotranspiração, irrigação, SIG. Climate change and impacts on water requirement of permanent crops in the Jaguaribe Basin, Ceará, BrazilAbstract -The aim of this study was to estimate climate change impacts on irrigation water demand for permanent crops. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) system was applied, and downscaling techniques were used at the river basin level, with the boundary conditions of the regional climate model (HadRM3P). A climate data set was generated for 1961 to 1990 (baseline) and for future climate projections. The regional geographical coordinates were considered for interpolation in a georeferenced coordinated system. The reference evapotranspiration was estimated through data of monthly average temperature. Projected climate change increased projected irrigation water demand, because evapotranspiration was estimated to increase by 3.1 to 2.2% and rainfall was estimated to decrease by 30.9 to 37.3%. The 2040 water need was estimated to increase by 32.9% to 43.9%, according to the analyzed scenario.

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Análise dos Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas em Região Semi-árida

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Climate change scenarios and their impact on the water balance of sugarcane production areas in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Hydrological response of a Brazilian semi‐arid catchment to different land use and climate change scenarios: a modelling study

Mudanças climáticas e impactos na necessidade hídrica das culturas perenes na Bacia do Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará

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