Análise de risco em operações de 'offloading' - um modelo de avaliação probabilística dinâmica para a tomada de decisão.

Abstract

To explore offshore oil fields in deep water the use of a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit coupled to a shuttle tanker is economically and technically feasible. The FPSO unit normally consists of a ship shaped hull, with an internal or external turret, and production equipment on the deck. The unit is also equipped for crude oil storage. Oil transportation systems required for supporting this infrastructure are pipelines or shuttle tankers. Shuttle tankers are increasingly being accepted as a preferred transportation method for remote and deepwater offshore developments. The offloading operation is considered one of the most risky operations in offshore environments. This dissertation presents a risk-based analysis method aiming at defining the risk profile associated with an offloading operation. For offloading operations the risk profile is usually

Decision-Making Model for Offshore Offloading Operations Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment

“…The probability that K be true given the system is in the state ST can be represented by Eq. (2) [5]:…”

“…The method is based on probability risk assessment and Markovian process to aid decisionmaking (see Figure 1). To calculate the probability of accident scenario, the Bayesian approach is presented in detail in [5]. It is used to estimate the probabilities that the system is in each state stochastic model are applied.…”

“…To stay connected for loading and at the same time maintain a safe separation distance, shuttle tanker must position itself aligned with the FPSO position. As we show in [5], the situation is dramatically changed in the tandem offloading operation in terms of positioning complexity and damage potential [5], due to the significant amount of mass involved (e.g., a 150,000-dwt shuttle tanker) in close distance to an installation (FPSO) for a long period of time.…”