An Updated Recurrence Model for Chilean Subduction Seismicity and Statistical Validation of Its Poisson Nature

Poulos, Alan; Monsalve, Mauricio; Zamora, Natalia; Llera, Juan Carlos de la

doi:10.1785/0120170160

Cited by 52 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Carlton and Abrahamson, 2014), and Conditional Spectra, CS (Lin et al, 2013). In the following example, a suite of CSs is computed for a firm soil site located in Santiago; the analysis considers the seismic source model of Poulos et al (2019), and our GMM adjusted for the SIBER-RISK database, as described previously. For conditioning periods T * = 0.1, 0.3, and 1.0 s, the design accelerations associated with a 475-year return period are 0.86, 0.81, and 0.26 g, respectively.…”

Section: Correlation Analysis: Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This example considers the interface and intermediate-depth sources defined by Poulos et al (2019), the recalibrated BC Hydro GMM discussed earlier, and circular rupture areas within each seismic source. The results in Figure 10 show that as ρ increases, the bivariate distribution becomes narrower, and the dominant rates concentrate along an oblique band.…”

Section: Correlation Analysis: Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Correlations of spectral accelerations in the Chilean subduction zone

et al. 2020

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The correlation between spectral accelerations is key in the construction of conditional mean spectra, the computation of vector-valued seismic hazard, and the assessment of seismic risk of spatially distributed systems, among other applications. Spectral correlations are highly dependent on the earthquake database used, and thus, region-specific correlation models have been developed mainly for earthquakes in western United States, Europe, Middle East, and Japan. Correlation models based on global data sets for crustal and subduction zones have also become available, but there is no consensus about their applicability on a specific region. This study proposes a new correlation model for 5% damped spectral accelerations and peak ground velocity in the Chilean subduction zone. The correlations obtained were generally higher than those observed from shallow crustal earthquakes and subduction zones such as Japan and Taiwan. The study provides two illustrative applications of the correlation model: (1) computation of conditional spectra for a firm soil site located in Santiago, Chile and (2) computation of bivariate hazard for spectral accelerations at two structural periods.

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Section: Correlation Analysis: Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Correlation Analysis: Results and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Correlations of spectral accelerations in the Chilean subduction zone

et al. 2020

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“…(A) Regional map of South America showing the subduction zone formed between the Nazca and South America plates that converge at 6-7 cm/yr (B) Seismic source zone. The black polygon demarcates the Zone 2 from Poulos et al (2019), where 2,800 seismic sources with stochastic slip distributions were generated. For reference, thin grey lines show Slab 1.0 depth contours every 20 km (Hayes et al, 2012).…”

Section: Definition Of Seismic and Tsunami Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Orange lines show the along-strike extent of selected earthquake ruptures from 1900-2020, and the 1730 rupture estimated by Carvajal et al (2017a) For the present study, an extensive rupture area is considered, over which great earthquakes of magnitudes ranging from M w 8.6 to 9.2 may occur. In particular, the domain is based on the Zone 2 defined in the study of Poulos et al (2019), which is shown by a black polygon in Figure 2B. Ruptures located further north or south of it are not considered due to their minimal effect in the study area, as observed in past tsunamis.…”

Section: Definition Of Seismic and Tsunami Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ruptures located further north or south of it are not considered due to their minimal effect in the study area, as observed in past tsunamis. The source geometry extends from latitude 25°S to about 36°S along-strike, roughly 1,100 km, and has a varying width of around 200 km down-dip (Poulos et al, 2019). Source parameters are based on the subduction zone model of Hayes et al (2012).…”

Section: Definition Of Seismic and Tsunami Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Microzoning Tsunami Hazard by Combining Flow Depths and Arrival Times

Zamora¹,

Catalán²,

Gubler³

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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Tsunami hazard is typically assessed from inundation flow depths estimated from one or many earthquake scenarios. However, information about the exact time when such inundation occurs is seldom considered, yet it is crucial for pedestrian evacuation planning. Here, we propose an approach to estimating tsunami hazard by combining tsunami flow depths and arrival times to produce a nine-level, qualitative hazard scale that is translated into a simple tsunami hazard map. To do this, one of the most populated regions of the coast of Chile is considered as the sample site, using a large set of 2,800 tsunamigenic sources from earthquakes with magnitudes in the range Mw8.6−9.2, modeled from generation to inundation at high resolution. Main outcomes show great dependency of the hazard categorization on the tsunami time arrival, and less to the flow depths. Also, these results demonstrate that incorporating different sources of variability such as different earthquake magnitudes and locations as well as stochastic slip distributions is essential. Moreover, this proof-of-concept exercise clearly shows that the qualitative hybrid categorization of the tsunami hazard allows for its more effective understanding, which can be beneficial for designing mitigation strategies such as evacuation planning, and its management.

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