An overview of the NEMO modelling for the BaySys project

Abstract

This article is intended as an introduction to discuss the development of a modelling framework to examine simulated climate change and river discharge regulation and their combined impact on marine conditions in the Hudson Bay Complex as a contribution to BaySys, a collaborative project between Manitoba Hydro, Hydro-Quebec, the University of Manitoba, the University of Alberta, Université Laval and Ouranos. In support of this work, a sea ice and oceanographic model was improved and then used to further study the effects of freshwater loading and ice cover on the circulation of Hudson Bay. This modelling perspective is based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean general circulation model coupled to version 2 of the Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model (LIM2). The goal of the modelling was to provide a framework and tool for simulating projected changes in marine state and dynamic variables, while also enabling an integration of observations and numerical analyses. A key aspect of this work was the climate-hydrologic-ocean model integration aspect. The inclusion of a biogeochemical model and explicit tidal forcing to examine the evolution of a Canadian marginal sea with century-long integrations was also a novel aspect of the work. Overall, this work examines the NEMO modelling configuration used in BaySys, how it is set up and the experiments carried out. A broader picture evaluation of the model output is made including the BaySys mooring observations, showing that the modelling framework is suitable to examine the posed questions on the role of climate change and river regulation.