An observational evidence of decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the recent three decades of global warming era

Naidu, C. V.; Raju, A. Dharma; Satyanarayana, G.; Kumar, P. Vinay; Chiranjeevi, G.; Suchitra, P.

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.010

Cited by 37 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…On the other hand, long‐spell rain events with moderate and low intensities have decreased in numbers. By using the subdivisional and gridded rainfall data, Naidu et al [] also observed the increase in dry spell days and extreme rainfall events. In a comprehensive study, Dash et al [] by using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulations found the weakening of monsoon circulation by 25–40% over central, eastern, and south peninsular India by the end of the century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Mohan

Rajeevan

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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The hydroclimatic intensity index (HY‐INT) is a single index that quantitatively combines measures of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, thus providing an integrated response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. The HY‐INT index is a product of the precipitation intensity (PINT, intensity during wet days) and dry spell length (DSL). Using the observed gridded rainfall data sets of 1951–2010 period, the changes in HY‐INT, PINT, and DSL over the Indian monsoon region have been examined in addition to changes in maximum consecutive dry days (MCD). We have also considered 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for examining the changes in these indices during the present‐day and future climate change scenarios. For climate change projections, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario was considered. The analysis of observational data during the period 1951–2010 suggested an increase in DSL and MCD over most of central India. Further, statistically significant (95% level) increase in HY‐INT is also noted during the period of 1951–2010, which is mainly caused due to significant increase in precipitation intensity. The CMIP5 model projections of future climate also suggest a statistically significant increase in HY‐INT over the Indian region. Out of the 10 models considered, seven models suggest a consistent increase in HY‐INT during the period of 2010–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the projected increase in HY‐INT is mainly due to increase in the precipitation intensity, while dry spell length (DSL) showed little changes in the future climate.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Mohan

Rajeevan

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Jayathilaka et al (2011) compared the mean annual rainfall of 65 stations in the Southwestern Sri Lanka, including lowlands and highlands and found that rainfall has decreased at all stations examined between the two periods, 1980-1992 and 1993-2007. This result also appears to contradict with the other studies described above. Naidu et al (2015) designated the period 1976 to 2004 as 'global warming' (GW) period, and this warming signal according to them was detected in South Asia as well. Kulkarni (2012) identified a break in the long-term trend in the all-India ISM rainfall data series in line with this change warming trend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

Wickramagamage

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

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“…The Authors. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that precipitation is highly heterogeneous in time and space, and these results depend to some degree on the exact region and time interval, and even month or threshold of rainfall intensity being studied (Naidu et al, 2015;Turner & Annamalai, 2012). understanding the mechanisms controlling SAM variability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The seasonal change in the winds is intimately coupled with a seasonal change in precipitation: the latent heat release during precipitation drives the winds and the convergence of moisture driven by the winds drives the precipitation (Goswami & Chakravorty, 2017). The SAM varies on a variety of timescales, from daily to multidecadal and beyond (Naidu et al, 2015;Roxy et al, 2015;Turner & Annamalai, 2012). Failure of the monsoon rains can lead to drought and famine, while excess rainfall leads to severe flooding, highlighting the importance of ©2019.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, many instrumental data sets indicate a decrease in monsoon rainfall (Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008;Kitoh et al, 2013;Zhou et al, 2008) and circulation (Krishnan et al, 2013;Tokinaga et al, 2012) since the 1950s. One possible explanation for this discrepancy is that precipitation is highly heterogeneous in time and space, and these results depend to some degree on the exact region and time interval, and even month or threshold of rainfall intensity being studied (Naidu et al, 2015;Turner & Annamalai, 2012). Some researchers do find increases in monsoon circulation and extreme rainfall events over the past several decades (Goswami et al, 2006;Wang et al, 2013), but a recent decrease in summer monsoon rainfall nonetheless appears to be the more common finding in instrumental records (Guhathakurta & Rajeevan, 2008;Kitoh et al, 2013;Krishnan et al, 2013;Tokinaga et al, 2012;Zhou et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Two Hundred Fifty Years of Reconstructed South Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity and Decadal‐Scale Variability

Bryan

Hughen

Karnauskas

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Climate model simulations of the summer South Asian monsoon predict increased rainfall in response to anthropogenic warming. However, instrumental data show a decline in Indian rainfall in recent decades, underscoring the critical need for additional, independent records of past monsoon variability. Here, we present new reconstructions of annual summer South Asian Monsoon circulation over the past 250 years, based on the geochemical barium‐calcium signature of dust present in Red Sea corals. These records reveal how monsoon circulation has evolved with warming climate and indicate a significant multi‐century long monsoon intensification, with decreased multidecadal variance. Stronger monsoon circulation would have increased the moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal over the Indian subcontinent. If these trends continue, the monsoon circulation and associated moisture transport and precipitation will remain strong and stable for several decades.

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An observational evidence of decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the recent three decades of global warming era

Cited by 37 publications

References 12 publications

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

Two Hundred Fifty Years of Reconstructed South Asian Summer Monsoon Intensity and Decadal‐Scale Variability

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