An Objective Multi-Criteria Evaluation of Water Management Scenarios

Abstract

Advanced computer models are commonly used to simulate reservoir system's performance. If the number of possible management scenarios is large, it can be extremely difficult to follow related system's operation and get a valuable picture on its spatial and temporal behavior. The decision maker or analyst can be overburdened by quantity and complexity of information generated by model, particularly if system operation is repeatedly simulated for multiyear periods. Related problem is how to select the scenario with most desired long-term consequences. Possible approach is to use selected parts of model's output and re-interpret system behavior by means of certain performance indicators, create appropriate decision matrix and perform multi-criteria analysis to rank decision alternatives (scenarios). The paper proposes a methodology that includes:(1) multiyear simulations of system operation; (2) computing spatially and temporally distributed system performance indices such as supply reliability, resiliency and vulnerability; (3) unbiased entropy-based weighting the importance of performance indices; and (4) final ranking of scenarios by means of multi-criteria analysis. The number of scenarios and number of performance indices is not restricted, and to account for possibly large sets of scenarios, an ideal-point-distance multicriteria method TOPSIS is suggested. Proposed methodology appeared to be confident and robust in proof-of-concept application in Brazil.

Regulation of water resources systems using fuzzy logic: a case study of Amaravathi dam

“…A number of studies have also been presented to incorporate uncertainty in assessing water resources potential, water allocation, water quality, reservoir operation and allied field of study using multi-criteria decision-making methods (Chan et al 2009;Flug et al 2000;Mahmoud and Garcia 2000;Singh 2008;Singh and Shrivastava 2014;Singh et al 2017;Srdjevic et al 2004;Teodorovic 1999). Talon et al (2014) enumerated the performance modelling on longrange collection of data using evidence theory and fuzzy logic.…”

A Systematic Review of Quantitative Resilience Measures for Water Infrastructure Systems

“…Fowler et al [63] used this measure to evaluate the resilience of a water resource system during drought events with various climate change scenarios. Srdjevic et al [64] used this measure to evaluate resilience as one of the multi-criteria for various scenarios of water management based on reservoirs, river flows, and water allocation. Asefa et al [13] also applied the evaluation of resilience in a water resources system under changing future climatic conditions (e.g., monthly rainfall) and water supply conditions (e.g., future demand, reservoir storage capacity, and surface water withdrawal restriction).…”

Optimization and Evaluation of Environmental Operations for Three Gorges Reservoir

“…At the top of the hierarchy is the goal; the next two levels usually contain the criteria and sub-criteria; and the alternatives lie at the bottom of the hierarchy (Srdjevic et al 2004(Srdjevic et al , 2012. The evaluation of the preferences among the set of alternatives is through pair-wise comparisons of the hierarchy elements at all levels.…”