An Objective Method of Thunderstorm Forecasting for Washington National Airport, Washington, D.C.1

Abstract

The literature was reviewed in order to determine the variables likely to be important in forecasting thunderstorms. A stepwise discriminant analysis was performed on these variables to determine those significantly related to thunderstorm occurrence. Eight variables were selected. These were then used to produce a forecasting equation by means of the linear discriminant analysis technique. This equation was then tested against the Showalter and Total Totals indexes for forecasting skill, and was found to have higher skill.