An Introduction to the Ecb's Survey of Professional Forecasters

A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators

“…For example, Haran, Moore and Morewedge (2010) developed the Subjective Probability Interval Estimates (SPIES) method where judges are asked to allocate probabilities to several predefined bins (intervals) to approximate the full distribution. A similar elicitation method was adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB; Garcia, 2003) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Croushore, 1993) in surveys of expert forecasters regarding macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and GDP growth rate. Abbas et al (2008) took a different approach where participants were asked to use a "probability wheel" to make pair-comparisons between (a) a fixed value of a variable and probabilities or (b) values of 2We use the term probability-interval to prevent confusion with confidence intervals that are computed with standard formulas using sample statistics.…”

Comparing Predictive Accuracy in Small Samples Using Fixed-Smoothing Asymptotics

“…The questionnaire is sent to the panelists just after the release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)-that is, in the third week of the month before the survey-and the forecasts are collected in the second half of the first month of each quarter. For more details, Bowles et al (2007, 2010), and Garcia (2003.…”

Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy

“…Haran, Moore and Morewedge (2010) formalized and validated the Subjective Probability Interval Estimates (SPIES) in which judges are asked to allocate probabilities to several predefined bins that represent a C-fold (mutually exclusive and exhaustive) partition of the full range of the target variable. Several large-scale forecasting projects including the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of European Central Bank (ECB; Garcia, 2003) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Croushore, 1993) utilize this "bin" method to collect expert forecasters' judgments regarding macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and GDP growth rate.…”