An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

Shi, Ge; Ribbe, Joachim; Cai, Wenju; Cowan, Tim

doi:10.1029/2007gl032436

Cited by 48 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 12 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…Positive SAM phase during summer results in southern Australia positioned under the northern half of a high pressure cell with onshore circulation which can enhance summer precipitation over SEA (Risbey et al 2009b;Bureau of Meteorology 2008;Murphy and Timbal 2008;Shi et al 2008;Meneghini et al 2007). Noted features associated with the positive trend in the SAM since the 1970s (Murphy and Timbal 2008;Marshall 2003) include a poleward shift in the mid-latitude westerly storm tracks and strengthening of the East Australia Current (EAC), leading to warming in the Tasman Sea.…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both are proposed as mechanisms for increasing summer precipitation in SEA (Gallant et al 2012;Shi et al 2008;Cai et al 2005).…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A high degree of intra-annual variability is present in the synoptic classification of weather systems. Winter and spring are typically the wettest seasons, when precipitation is heavily influenced by the interaction between the prevailing mid-latitude westerly airflow and orographic effects (Chubb et al 2011;Ummenhofer et al 2009b;Cai and Cowan 2008;Pook et al 2006), and frontal and closed low systems dominate. However, Theobald et al (2015) revealed the importance of warm-season precipitation to the generation of inflows, with more than 40% of precipitation days ≥ 10 mm occurring during the warmer months.…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in synoptic circulation and precipitation in the Snowy Mountains region, Australia, in the period 1958–2012

Theobald

McGowan

Speirs

2016

Atmospheric Research

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The hydroclimate of the Snowy Mountains, south-east Australia (SEA), is influenced by tropical and extra-tropical synoptic scale weather systems. Accordingly, it is sensitive to any changes in the mid-latitude westerly wind belt, the dominant driver of precipitation in winter, and the entrainment of moisture from tropical latitudes, particularly during the warmer months of the austral summer.The region has historically observed a cool-season (April -October) dominated precipitation regime. However, evidence is presented of a decline in precipitation during the autumn and spring transition months. Autumn precipitation is particularly important for crop sowing and agricultural production in the Murray-Darling Basin downstream of the Snowy Mountains, while spring precipitation influences snowmelt and water storage replenishment in the Snowy Mountains. Instead, we show a change in the annual precipitation distribution is evident, with an increase in precipitation during warmer months.Trend analyses for the period 1958 -2012 show a decrease in annual frequency of precipitation days capable of generating inflows to the catchments of the Snowy Mountains of -1.4 days per decade on average, whilst the precipitation they generate has increased by +5.7 mm per decade. These results align with climate change projections that precipitation events are becoming less frequent but more intense.

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Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both are proposed as mechanisms for increasing summer precipitation in SEA (Gallant et al 2012;Shi et al 2008;Cai et al 2005).…”

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accepted M Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in synoptic circulation and precipitation in the Snowy Mountains region, Australia, in the period 1958–2012

Theobald

McGowan

Speirs

2016

Atmospheric Research

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“…The rainfall decrease in SWWA has been studied intensely in recent years (e.g. Smith et al, 2000;Cai and Watterson, 2002;IOCI, 2002;Pitman et al, 2004;Cai et al, 2005;Cai and Cowan, 2006;Hope et al, 2006;Meneghini et al, 2007;Feng et al, 2010aFeng et al, , 2010b, as has the increasing trend in NWA (Wardle and Smith, 2004;Rotstayn et al, 2006;Shi et al, 2008aShi et al, , 2008bTaschetto and England, 2008). In contrast, relatively little is known of the cause and mechanism of the decreased NEA rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A possible cause of decreasing summer rainfall in northeast Australia

Li¹,

Feng²,

Li³

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and precipitation data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are used to analyse variability in rainfall during the austral summer (December-March, DJFM) in northeast Australia (NEA). NEA rainfall shows a marked decrease over the past 50 years, mainly in the austral summer. Our analysis reveals that the summer rainfall decrease in NEA is generally an interdecadal phenomenon. The declining trend has an imprint in the tropical Australian summer monsoon (TASM). Not only does TASM have a phase-to-phase influence on NEA summer rainfall at the interannual scale, it is also closely linked with interdecadal variation in NEA summer rainfall. Thus, the decrease in NEA at the interdecadal scale could be attributed to corresponding variation in TASM. Moreover, the coupled linkage between TASM and NEA summer rainfall appears to be largely independent of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. One possible reason for the interdecadal weakening trend in TASM is a sustained interdecadal warming trend in sea surface temperature (SST) over the Wharton Basin (100°-130°E, 20°-5°S). When the Wharton Basin is in a cold state, anomalous westerlies occur in the lower troposphere in the TASM region, and cyclonic circulation anomalies and rising flows occur in the low and middle troposphere over NEA, which are associated with a strong TASM situation, consequently favouring enhanced rainfall over NEA; the opposite occurs in the case of a warm Wharton Basin. SST over the Wharton Basin has shown a continuous warming trend over the past 60 years, contributing to the weakening of TASM and, consequently, a decrease in NEA summer rainfall.

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“…This reduction in total rainfall has caused persistent drought conditions in the last two decades. These shifts have been attributed to changes in large scale climate system processes such as the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Shi et al 2008b). The changes that are linked to a widening of the tropical belt are projected to persist into the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay

Gräwe

Wolff

Ribbe

2010

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

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The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 C per decade during the last fifty years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13 % from the climatology . In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23 %. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay.

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An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

Cited by 48 publications

References 12 publications

Trends in synoptic circulation and precipitation in the Snowy Mountains region, Australia, in the period 1958–2012

Trends in synoptic circulation and precipitation in the Snowy Mountains region, Australia, in the period 1958–2012

A possible cause of decreasing summer rainfall in northeast Australia

Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay

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