An interdisciplinary system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery

Abstract

Many previous disasters have demonstrated the need for extensive personal, public, and governmental expenditures for housing recovery highlighting the importance of studying housing recovery. Yet, much research is still needed to fully understand the multi-faceted and complex nature of housing recovery. The goal of this paper is to present a holistic model to further the understanding of the dynamic processes and interdependencies of housing recovery. The impetus for this work is that inequalities in housing recovery could be addressed more effectively if we better understood interconnected factors and dynamic processes that slow down recovery for some. Currently, there is a lack of understanding about such factors and processes. Literature from engineering and social sciences was reviewed to develop an integrated system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery. While it is beyond current capabilities to quantify such complexities, the presented model takes a major stride toward articulating the complex phenomenon that is housing recovery.

Postdisaster Housing Stages: A Markov Chain Approach to Model Sequences and Duration Based on Social Vulnerability

“…where the initial (t = t 0 ) stage probability vector, π (t 0 ) = [π 1 (t 0 ); π 2 (t 0 ); π 3 (t 0 ); π 4 (t 0 )], can be determined by a joint probabilistic mapping from the joint effect of building damage, utility disruption, and social vulnerability following a hazard event to household dislocation rates (Lin & Wang, 2017;Sutley & Hamideh, 2017;van de Lindt et al, 2018). Such data are not readily available, but can be obtained through longitudinal postdisaster field reconnaissance (e.g., van de Lindt et al, 2018).…”

Housing recovery outcomes after typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines: a critical realist perspective

“…The first section of the Theoretical framework introduces approaches to housing reconstruction after disasters. The second section introduces models of housing recovery, specially the interdisciplinary system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery from Sutley and Hamideh (2017) that will be used for analysis and discussion in the Findings section. The third section focuses on critical realism, which is the metatheory of this paper, explicitly the theory and the philosophy behind the theories of housing recovery.…”

“…Kates and Pijawka (1977) focus on a continuum recovery framework and Quarantelli (1982) develops a conceptualization of sheltering and housing based on several stages of the process. According to Sutley and Hamideh (2017), many researchers have modelled housing recovery quantitatively in engineering or using mixed-methods in social science studies but a model with a holistic perspective was missing. The same authors have developed an interdisciplinary system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery that applies causal factors from the social sciences into an engineering model (Sutley and Hamideh 2017).…”

“…According to Sutley and Hamideh (2017), many researchers have modelled housing recovery quantitatively in engineering or using mixed-methods in social science studies but a model with a holistic perspective was missing. The same authors have developed an interdisciplinary system dynamics model for post-disaster housing recovery that applies causal factors from the social sciences into an engineering model (Sutley and Hamideh 2017). The model includes the following variables and causal factors: a) Building Stock Quality, b) Damage, c) Damage Rate, d) Repair Rate, e) Delay Time, f) Policies, g) Available Resources, h) Social Vulnerability, and i) Repair Resources Allocation Rate.…”

“…Resource shortage, limited ways of procuring resources, profiteering and inflation; and material cost escalation tend to intensify competition among different agents that affects and delays housing recovery (Chang et al 2010). Sutley and Hamideh's (2017) self-critique is that their model has restrictions regarding capturing qualitative relationships and interdependencies between people's behaviour and infrastructure systems. Housing recovery is a complex phenomenon occurring in open systems instead of a closed system such as a laboratory.…”