An integrated view of foresight: integrated foresight management model

Alsan, Alper; Öner, M. Atilla

doi:10.1108/14636680310476258

Cited by 36 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Schlossstein and Park (2006) compare Technology Foresight studies in Korea and China. Alsan and Oner (2003) proposed Integrated Foresight Management Model (IFM) to review national foresight studies to understand the nature of comparative national foresight studies. Grupp and Linstone (1999) summarize recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are termed ''foresight''.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight

2010

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This study proposes an approach for visualizing a knowledge structure, the proposed approach creates a three-dimensional ''Research focused parallelship network'', a ''Keyword Co-occurrence Network'', and a two-dimensional knowledge map to facilitate visualization of the knowledge structure created by journal papers from different perspectives. The networks and knowledge maps can be depicted differently by choosing different information as the network actor, e.g. author, institute or country keyword, to reflect knowledge structures in micro-, meso-, and macro-levels, respectively. Technology Foresight is selected as an example to illustrate the method proposed in this study. A total of 556 author keywords contained in 181 Technology Foresight related papers have been analyzed. European countries, China, India and Brazil are located at the core of Technology Foresight research. Quantitative ways of mapping journal papers are investigated in this study to unveil emerging elements as well as to demonstrate dynamics and visualization of knowledge. The quantitative method provided in this paper shows a possible way of visualizing and evaluating knowledge structure; thus a computerized calculation is possible for potential quantitative applications, e.g. R&D resource allocation, research performance evaluation, science map, etc.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight

2010

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“…While comparing national foresight reports, Gavigan and Scapolo [55] answered to these challenges with applying a national objectives analytical model, while Alsan and Atilla Oner [56] developed comparative matrices. Other authors have compared methodologies [57], or participants, organizers, and the difficulty to measure policy impacts [58].…”

Section: Method-comparing Citizen-and Expert-based Topics For Randi Agementioning

confidence: 99%

But do they deliver? Participatory agenda setting on the test bed

2018

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In this contribution, we investigate how results produced in a large-scale participatory agenda setting process differ from results of expert-based foresight studies with a similar aim of informing EU research and innovation (R&I) policy. After providing a theoretical positioning and an overview of the EU-wide participatory agenda setting process CIMULACT-Citizen and Multi-Actor Consultation on Horizon 2020, we describe our developed analytical approach that includes five analytical steps and calculation of three metrics. By comparative reading, analysis and scoring of 16 expert-based foresight reports, we produced data for the metrics that allow for discerning between (a) how many of the analyzed foresight reports cover a respective topic from CIMULACT, (b) how well this basic coverage aligns qualitatively, and (c) comprehensive comparison of each CIMULACT topic with respect to all surveyed reports. To discern differences, we chose those results (research topics) from CIMULACT that were also sufficiently covered by expert-based reports. Our findings suggest that such citizen-based, multi-actor co-created policy advice qualitatively differs considerably from that elicited by expert-based reports, in terms of direction and focus of the proposed R&I agenda.

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“…Scholars developed forecasting tools for managing uncertainty at the level of innovation projects (Chapman and Ward, 1996;De Meyer et al, 2002) and capital budgeting and capital structure policies (Bromiley, 1986;Graham and Harvey, 2001;Leland, 1998). More generally, scholars developed future-oriented tools aimed at enhancing decision-making at the level of business and corporate strategy (Alsan and Oner, 2003;Fink et al, 2004;Porter et al, 2004). Some of the most popular techniques are environmental scanning, product and technology roadmaps, scenarios and real options (Porter et al, 2004;Voros, 2001).…”

Section: Fast-paced Environments Uncertainty and Strategic Decision mentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic planning and organizational flexibility in turbulent environments

Vecchiato¹

2015

Foresight

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Purpose – The main purpose of this paper is to address a key issue in literature on management and foresight: the author explores how firms might cope with the increased turbulence of the business environment. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a multiple case study of major firms of the energy and the mobile communication industries. Findings – The focus is on strategic foresight and organizational flexibility: the author introduces the concept of “boundary uncertainty” and investigates its managerial implications. Originality/value – The main contribution of this paper is to expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty and to reinvigorate the study of strategic decision making in turbulent industries. The author provides descriptive data on the foresight approaches that some of the world’s largest and most influential companies used throughout the 2000s for remaining aligned with their fast-paced environments, and thus informs the debate between the “planning” and the “learning” schools of strategic management.

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An integrated view of foresight: integrated foresight management model

Cited by 36 publications

References 23 publications

Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight

Mapping knowledge structure by keyword co-occurrence: a first look at journal papers in Technology Foresight

But do they deliver? Participatory agenda setting on the test bed

Strategic planning and organizational flexibility in turbulent environments

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