An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change

Kim, Kwang-Hyung; Koh, Young Jin

doi:10.5423/ppj.oa.05.2019.0140

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…While the ensemble model developed in [45] showed that annual precipitation plays a minor role in Psa spread, similar to the model in [44], our study shows that precipitation plays an important role in Psa establishment. The sensitivity of Psa to rainfall has also been highlighted in other studies [48,72] and is in agreement with the high soil moisture (SM) values indicated in the current CLIMEX model (Table 1). The response of Psa to annual precipitation shows that while the pathogen is favored by moist conditions, excessive rain (above 1200 mm/year) will decrease the probability of pathogen establishment, probably because of the washout of inoculum [71].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…They found that the model was highly sensitive to rainfall, and disease incidence was high when rainfall was recorded in consecutive days. By testing different ranges of average temperatures, 24 • C was identified as the optimal threshold, with no change in disease incidence when daily maximum temperatures exceeded 27-30 • C. Kim and Koh [48] also developed an integrated modelling approach to investigate the potential for epidemics of Psa under climate change. The integrated modelling approach used three models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Potential Global Climate Suitability of Kiwifruit Bacterial Canker Disease (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa)) Using Three Modelling Approaches: CLIMEX, Maxent and Multimodel Framework

Narouei‐Khandan

Worner

Viljanen‐Rollinson

et al. 2022

Climate

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In recent years, outbreaks of kiwifruit bacterial canker (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae Psa) have caused huge economic losses to two major global kiwifruit producers, Italy and New Zealand. To evaluate the potential global risk areas of Psa, three modelling methods (MaxEnt, CLIMEX and a multimodel framework, including support vector machines or SVM) were used. Current global occurrence data for Psa were collected from different sources. The long-term climate data were sourced from WorldClim and CliMond websites. The model results were combined into a consensus model to identify the hotspots. The consensus model highlighted the areas where two or three models agreed on climate suitability for Psa. All three models agreed with respect to the climate suitability of areas where Psa is currently present and identified novel areas where Psa has not established yet. The SVM model predicted large areas in Central Asia, Australia, and Europe as more highly suitable compared to MaxEnt and CLIMEX. Annual mean temperature and annual precipitation contributed most to the MaxEnt prediction. Both MaxEnt and CLIMEX showed the probability of Psa establishment increased above 5 °C and decreased above 20 °C. The annual precipitation response curve showed that excessive rain (>1200 mm/y) constrains Psa establishment. Our modelling results will provide useful information for Psa management by highlighting the climatically susceptible areas where Psa has not established, such as the USA, Iran, Denmark, Belgium and especially South Africa, where kiwifruit has been planted commercially in recent years.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Potential Global Climate Suitability of Kiwifruit Bacterial Canker Disease (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa)) Using Three Modelling Approaches: CLIMEX, Maxent and Multimodel Framework

Narouei‐Khandan

Worner

Viljanen‐Rollinson

et al. 2022

Climate

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“…The underlying assumption of using alternative cultivars with different heading dates is that early or late heading dates will avoid environmental conditions conducive to FHB infection. Changing planting dates or using cultivars of different maturity to avoid high disease pressure periods is a popular adaptation strategy to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change on plant diseases ( Nouri et al., 2017 ; Kim and Koh, 2019 ). A series of GIBSIM simulations were run to determine the effect of the changed (early or late) heading date on the FHB risk index.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios

Jung

Kim²,

Baek³

et al. 2022

Front. Plant Sci.

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Fusarium head blight (FHB) of wheat, mainly caused by Fusarium graminearum Schwabe, is an emerging threat to wheat production in Korea under a changing climate. The disease occurrence and accumulation of associated trichothecene mycotoxins in wheat kernels strongly coincide with warm and wet environments during flowering. Recently, the International Panel for Climate Change released the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). In this study, we adopted GIBSIM, an existing mechanistic model developed in Brazil to estimate the risk infection index of wheat FHB, to simulate the potential FHB epidemics in Korea using the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios of CMIP6. The GIBSIM model simulates FHB infection risk from airborne inoculum density and infection frequency using temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity during the flowering period. First, wheat heading dates, during which GIBSIM runs, were predicted over suitable areas of winter wheat cultivation using a crop development rate model for wheat phenology and downscaled SSP scenarios. Second, an integrated model combining all results of wheat suitability, heading dates, and FHB infection risks from the SSP scenarios showed a gradual increase in FHB epidemics towards 2100, with different temporal and spatial patterns of varying magnitudes depending on the scenarios. These results indicate that proactive management strategies need to be seriously considered in the near future to minimize the potential impacts of the FHB epidemic under climate change in Korea. Therefore, available wheat cultivars with early or late heading dates were used in the model simulations as a realistic adaptation measure. As a result, wheat cultivars with early heading dates showed significant decreases in FHB epidemics in future periods, emphasizing the importance of effective adaptation measures against the projected increase in FHB epidemics in Korea under climate change.

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“…actinidiae (Psa), has been well recognized as the most destructive pathogen affecting kiwifruit production. Several kiwifruit-growing countries have reported significant losses attributed to this illness (Kim & Koh, 2019;Savian, 2020). PSA infection has been found to induce a range of symptoms and, in more severe instances, can lead to the demise of plants, resulting in a substantial decrease in both the quantity and quality of kiwifruit production (Donati et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Harnessing the bacteriophages to deal with canker infection of kiwi fruit: challenges and future perspective

Raza,

Hassan,

Juniad

et al. 2024

Adv. Virology

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The worldwide kiwifruit industry has suffered significant economic losses in recent decades as a result of the destructive bacterial plant disease Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa). Existing control approaches, which depend on the use of copper bactericides and antibiotics, are facing growing challenges due to the rise of resistance to antibiotics and ecological issues. Although biocontrol techniques show promise in laboratory settings, their efficacy in real-world field situations remains unclear. In order to tackle this issue, the emergence of a phage-based biocontrol method becomes a vital alternative, considering the precise targeting of bacteriophages (phages) towards the particular bacteria and their ecologically benign characteristics. This thorough assessment commences by delineating the repercussions of Psa-induced kiwifruit canker, underscoring the need for pioneering management strategies. The text explores the many types and strengths of Psa strains, and then shifts its attention to recent progress in the identification and description of Psa phages. The main topics discussed are the physical structure of phages, the spectrum of organisms they may infect, their ability to destroy bacterial cells, the study of their genetic material, and the process by which they break down bacterial cells. The review examines biocontrol tactics and their possible obstacles in kiwifruit orchards, specifically focusing on abiotic variables such as elevated temperature, UV irradiation and severe pH. The manuscript highlights the crucial importance of phages in efficiently controlling Psa infections, providing a sustainable and focused approach for safeguarding plants.

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An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change

Cited by 7 publications

References 32 publications

The Potential Global Climate Suitability of Kiwifruit Bacterial Canker Disease (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa)) Using Three Modelling Approaches: CLIMEX, Maxent and Multimodel Framework

The Potential Global Climate Suitability of Kiwifruit Bacterial Canker Disease (Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa)) Using Three Modelling Approaches: CLIMEX, Maxent and Multimodel Framework

Adapting to the projected epidemics of Fusarium head blight of wheat in Korea under climate change scenarios

Harnessing the bacteriophages to deal with canker infection of kiwi fruit: challenges and future perspective

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