An Integrated Model of Oil Production

Moroney, John R.; Berg, Mandy

doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol20-no1-6

Cited by 38 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…17 Some hybrid models are structured as comparatively minor modifications of traditional econometric models [76]. Others augment curve-fitting models with economic variables.…”

Section: Econometric Models Of Oil Depletionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique

Brandt

2010

Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…17 Some hybrid models are structured as comparatively minor modifications of traditional econometric models [76]. Others augment curve-fitting models with economic variables.…”

Section: Econometric Models Of Oil Depletionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique

Brandt

2010

Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Examples are provided by models which combine physical oil reserves with economic and regulatory variables (e.g. Moroney and Berg, 1999), or which describe OPEC as well as non-OPEC behaviour (see, among others, Dees et al, 2007). Models of this type can be used as forecasting mechanisms for the driving variables, and are likely to improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the financial and structural models currently available in the literature.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting

Bastianin

Manera

Markandya

et al. 2014

The Interrelationship Between Financial and Energy Markets

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting SummaryThe relevance of oil in the world economy explains why considerable effort has been devoted to the development of different types of econometric models for oil price forecasting. Several specifications have been proposed in the economic literature. Some are based on financial theory and concentrate on the relationship between spot and futures prices ("financial" models). Others assign a key role to variables explaining the characteristics of the physical oil market ("structural" models). The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that should be implemented. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First of all, we test and systematically evaluate the ability of several alternative econometric specifications proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of oil prices. Second, we analyse the effects of different data frequencies on the coefficient estimates and forecasts obtained using each selected econometric specification. Third, we compare different models at different data frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using static and dynamic forecasts, as well as different measures of forecast errors. Finally, we propose a new class of models which combine the relevant aspects of the financial and structural specifications proposed in the literature ("mixed" models). Our empirical findings can be summarized as follows. Financial models in levels do not produce satisfactory forecasts for the WTI spot price. The financial error correction model yields accurate in-sample forecasts. Real and strategic variables alone are insufficient to capture the oil spot price dynamics in the forecasting sample. Our proposed mixed models are statistically adequate and exhibit accurate forecasts. Different data frequencies seem to affect the forecasting ability of the models under analysis.

show abstract

“…(1) and initial conditions in year t, t 1, t 2; : : : can then be matched to real data via regression methods. Moroney and Berg (1999) found that their model predictions are more accurate when it is based on reserves, lagged production, and the real price of oil rather than on reserves alone or on real price alone.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…While a full investigation of the state of world oil production and reserves encompasses a statistical analysis based on drilling data, political factors, advancements in exploration technology, economic pricing models, and outlook, etc. (British Petroleum, 2005;Cavallo, 2002;Hallock et al, 2004;International Energy Agency, 2005;Kaufmann, 1991;Kaufmann and Cleveland, 2001;Lynch, 2002;Moroney and Berg, 1999;Pesaran and Samiei, 1995), many predictions (Bartlett, 2000;Pesaran and Samiei, 1995) are still 218 P. Berg and S. Korte based on the Hubbert model (Hubbert, 1956) for the U.S. oil peak, proposed in 1956. This is surprising because the model, a logistic equation, is very simplistic in its assumption and, moreover, predicts a symmetric production curve over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…There have been attempts to derive econometric models for the oil price and production to include economic, physical, and institutional determinants as well as reserves (Kaufmann, 1991;Kaufmann and Cleveland, 2001;Moroney and Berg, 1999;Pesaran and Samiei, 1995). These are often recursive in nature and describe a multi-dimensional time series, usually annual oil production and price.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Higher-order Hubbert Models for World Oil Production

Berg

Korte

2008

Petroleum Science and Technology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The intricate dynamics of world oil production are traditionally modeled by a single differential equation, the Hubbert model, arguably too simple in nature. In this article, the Hubbert model is extended to higher-order models which break the symmetry of the Hubbert curve, one of its main controversial features. Our numerical results exhibit a shift of the peak into the future followed by a steeper decline in production, resembling recent production curves of some natural gas fields. Finally, a new supply-demand-reserves model is introduced which is capable of reproducing the US peak, based on more realistic assumptions for production changes.

show abstract

An Integrated Model of Oil Production

Cited by 38 publications

References 12 publications

Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique

Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique

Evaluating the Empirical Performance of Alternative Econometric Models for Oil Price Forecasting

Higher-order Hubbert Models for World Oil Production

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About