An integrated earthquake damage assessment methodology and its application for two districts in Istanbul, Turkey

Cinicioglu, S. Feyza; Bozbey, İlknur; Öztoprak, Sadık; Keleşoğlu, M. Kubilay

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.06.007

Cited by 20 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…1) were used to estimate the intensity of the earthquake at each distance to the rupture zone and Eq. (2) was proposed by Borcherdt (1997) and Cinicioglu et al (2007) to compute the site amplification effect and it's utility as applied to shallow crustal earthquakes in Banda Aceh city:…”

Section: Earthquake Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Shallow crustal earthquake models, damage, and loss predictions in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Rusydy

Idris

Mulkal

et al. 2020

Geoenviron Disasters

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The city of Banda Aceh stands on Holocene fluvial basin sediment, surrounded by the Aceh and Seulimeum fault segments where large magnitude earthquakes can occur at any time. Such earthquakes could cause extensive physical infrastructure damages, injuries, and economic loss. This research aims to produce several earthquake scenarios, to determine the damage ratio of the buildings and its distribution in these different scenarios and to estimate the number of potential casualties and economic loss. Data analysis in this research includes modelling an earthquake by applying a ground motion model for shallow crustal earthquakes to yield an intensity map after the correction for site effects. The damage ratios for different types of buildings were calculated using the fragility curves of buildings that were developed by other researchers. Building occupants at different times, building damage ratios, and injury ratios were used to determine the number of injured residents in the earthquake scenario. The results show that Banda Aceh could be potentially experience earthquake ground motion within the intensity range from MMI VII to IX due to earthquakes of Mw 6.5 to Mw 7.0. The Mw 7.0 earthquake on the Aceh segment is the worst case scenario, causing building damage throughout Banda Aceh with casualty rates of 3.5-20% of the population in buildings in general if it happened during daytime, with economic loss about 3320 million USD. Mitigation and preparedness programs for the Banda Aceh community are therefore very important in order to reduce the potential level of damage, personal injury, and economic loss due to future earthquakes.

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Section: Earthquake Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Shallow crustal earthquake models, damage, and loss predictions in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Rusydy

Idris

Mulkal

et al. 2020

Geoenviron Disasters

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“…Geotechnical, structural, and social-economic are some of the key points to investigate the earthquake [3,[12][13][14]. Many studies [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27] have combined spatial statistical techniques and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) integrated with a GIS to investigate seismic hazards, vulnerability, and their associated risks to humans and the environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geospatial Multicriteria Analysis for Earthquake Risk Assessment: Case Study of Fujairah City in the UAE

et al. 2021

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A clear understanding of the spatial distribution of earthquake events facilitates the prediction of seismicity and vulnerability among researchers in the social, physical, environmental, and demographic aspects. Generally, there are few studies on seismic risk assessment in United Arab Emirates (UAE) within the geographic information system (GIS) platform. Former researches and recent news events have demonstrated that the eastern part of the country experiences jolts of 3-5 magnitude, specifically near Fujairah city and surrounding towns. This study builds on previous research on the seismic hazard that extracted the eastern part of the UAE as the most hazard-prone zone. Therefore, this study develops an integrated analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and machine learning (ML) for risk mapping considering eight geospatial parameters—distance from shoreline, schools, hospitals, roads, residences, streams, confined area, and confined area slope. Experts’ opinions and literature reviews were the basis of the AHP ranking and weighting system. To validate the AHP system, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF) classifiers were applied to the datasets. The datasets were split into 60 : 40 ratio for training and testing. Results show that SVM has the highest accuracy of 79.6% compared to DT and RF with a “predicted high” precision of 87.5% attained from the model. Risk maps from both AHP and ML approaches were developed and compared. Risk analysis was categorised into 5 classes “very high,” “high,” “moderate,” “low,” and “very low.” Both approaches modelled relatable spatial patterns as risk-prone zones. AHP approach concluded 3.6% as “very high” risk zone, whereas only 0.3% of total area was identified from ML. The total area for the “very high” (20 km2) and “high” (114 km2) risk was estimated from ML approach.

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“…(Liu et al, 2012) presented a GIS-based approach using multi-criteria factors (geological and topographical variables such as rock competence, slope, proximity to drainage, and fracture density) to model earthquake damage zone and the susceptibility of earthquake-related geo-hazards in Sichuan Province, China, throughout the use of overlay weighted analysis. (Cinicioglu et al, 2007) presents an integrated, earthquake-damage assessment by combining the risk from soil structure, liquefaction, landslide, ground shaking, and seismic bearing capacity degradation factors to estimate the area structural and geotechnical characteristics contribution on the earthquake risk. Using GIS platform (Pal et al, 2007) establish Earthquake hazard zonation of Sikkim Himalaya.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geostatistical Seismic Analysis and Hazard Assessment; United Arab Emirates

Al-Dogom

Schuckma

Al‐Ruzouq

2018

Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Assessing and analyzing the spatial distribution of earthquake events aids in identifying the presence of clustering and reveals hot and cold spots across the study area. Combining the spatial analysis of earthquake events with other geographical and geophysical parameters leads to more understanding of the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and the demographics of the affected population. This study will use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to examine the spatiotemporal occurrence of earthquake events throughout the Arabian plate and their effect on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Spatial pattern analysis techniques, including Moran I and Getis–Ord Gi*, were applied to 115 years of earthquakes (1900&ndash;2015) that have occurred throughout the Arabian plate. The directional distribution (standard deviational ellipse) of earthquake magnitudes was analyzed to determine the spatial characteristics and the directional tendency of the earthquakes throughout the Arabian plate. Afterword, geophysical parameters of UAE, specifically Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), fault line distance, slope, soil type, and geology were ranked, weighted based on its contribution and combined using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify and locate seismic hazard zones. The resulted Seismic Hazard Zonation Map (SHZM) was classified to five hazard zones ranging from very high to very low. It has been found that Fujairah city sited in the “very High” zone, Sharjah and Dubai cities located from “High” to moderate zones while Abu Dhabi city stands relatively far from seismic hot spots and major faults and placed in the low seismic hazard zone. The results of this study could help improve urban planning and emergency mitigation strategies in UAE.</p>

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An integrated earthquake damage assessment methodology and its application for two districts in Istanbul, Turkey

Cited by 20 publications

References 27 publications

Shallow crustal earthquake models, damage, and loss predictions in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Shallow crustal earthquake models, damage, and loss predictions in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Geospatial Multicriteria Analysis for Earthquake Risk Assessment: Case Study of Fujairah City in the UAE

Geostatistical Seismic Analysis and Hazard Assessment; United Arab Emirates

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