An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish

Arevalo, Elorri; Lassalle, Géraldine; Tétard, Stéphane; Maire, Anthony; Sauquet, Éric; Lambert, Patrick; Paumier, Alexis; Villeneuve, Bertrand; Drouineau, Hilaire

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141260

Cited by 18 publications

(19 citation statements)

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“…Stream warming affects cold-water fish populations negatively at the warmer boundaries of their habitat (Hari et al, 2006). Furthermore, changes in spawning and migration timing (McCann et al, 2018;Arevalo et al, 2020), decreases in habitat availability and freshwater quality for organisms (Lennox et al, 2019), and shifts in species distribution (Comte et al, 2013) are already observed consequences of the long-term increase in Tw. Some major changes in fish density and community structure has already been reported in large rivers over France (Maire et al, 2019) for which we also found greater trends in Tw compared to small ones.…”

Section: Implications For River Management and Aquatic Biotamentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional, multi-decadal analysis reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature

Seyedhashemi

Vidal

Diamond

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data and difficulty in parsing effects of hydroclimate and landscape variability. Here, we address these issues using the physically-based thermal model T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) coupled with the EROS semi-distributed hydrological model to reconstruct past daily stream temperature and streamflow at the scale of the entire Loire River basin in France (105 km2 with 52278 reaches). Stream temperature increased for almost all reaches in all seasons (mean = +0.38 °C/decade) over the 1963–2019 period. Increases were greatest in spring and summer with a median increase of +0.38 °C (range = +0.11– +0.76 °C) and +0.44 °C (+0.08– +1.02 °C) per decade, respectively. Rates of stream temperature increases were greater than for air temperature across seasons for 50–86 % of reaches. Spring and summer increases were typically the greatest in the southern headwaters (up to +1 °C/decade) and in the largest rivers (Strahler order > 5). Importantly, air temperature and streamflow exerted joint influence on stream temperature trends, where the greatest stream temperature increases were accompanied by similar trends in air temperature (up to +0.71 °C/decade) and the greatest decreases in streamflow (up to −16 %/decade). Indeed, for the majority of reaches, positive stream temperature anomalies exhibited synchrony with positive anomalies in air temperature and negative anomalies in streamflow, highlighting the dual control exerted by these hydroclimatic drivers. Moreover, spring and summer stream temperature, air temperature, and streamflow time series exhibited common change-points occurring in the late 1980s, suggesting a temporal coherence between changes in the hydroclimatic drivers and a rapid stream temperature response. Critically, riparian vegetation shading mitigated stream temperature increases by up to 16 % in smaller streams (i.e., < 30 km from the source). Our results provide strong support for basin-wide increases in stream temperature due to joint effects of rising air temperature and reduced streamflow. We suggest that some of these climate change-induced effects can be mitigated through the restoration and maintenance of riparian forests, and call for continued high-resolution monitoring of stream temperature at large scales.

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Section: Implications For River Management and Aquatic Biotamentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional, multi-decadal analysis reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature

Seyedhashemi

Vidal

Diamond

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…for cold-water biota, Arismendi et al, 2013b) and the completion of their life cycle (e.g. for diadromous fish, Arevalo et al, 2020). Hence, from an ecological perspective, it will be critical to understand and deconvolve the joint influences of changing T w and Q regimes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature

Seyedhashemi

Vidal

Diamond

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Stream temperature appears to be increasing globally, but its rate remains poorly constrained due to a paucity of long-term data and difficulty in parsing effects of hydroclimate and landscape variability. Here, we address these issues using the physically based thermal model T-NET (Temperature-NETwork) coupled with the EROS semi-distributed hydrological model to reconstruct past daily stream temperature and streamflow at the scale of the entire Loire River basin in France (105 km2 with 52 278 reaches). Stream temperature increased for almost all reaches in all seasons (mean =+0.38 ∘C decade−1) over the 1963–2019 period. Increases were greatest in spring and summer, with a median increase of + 0.38 ∘C (range =+0.11 to +0.76 ∘C) and +0.44 ∘C (+0.08 to +1.02 ∘C) per decade, respectively. Rates of stream temperature increases were greater than for air temperature across seasons for the majority of reaches. Spring and summer increases were typically greatest in the southern part of the Loire basin (up to +1 ∘C decade−1) and in the largest rivers (Strahler order ≥5). Importantly, air temperature and streamflow could exert a joint influence on stream temperature trends, where the greatest stream temperature increases were accompanied by similar trends in air temperature (up to +0.71 ∘C decade−1) and the greatest decreases in streamflow (up to −16 % decade−1). Indeed, for the majority of reaches, positive stream temperature anomalies exhibited synchrony with positive anomalies in air temperature and negative anomalies in streamflow, highlighting the dual control exerted by these hydroclimatic drivers. Moreover, spring and summer stream temperature, air temperature, and streamflow time series exhibited common change points occurring in the late 1980s, suggesting a temporal coherence between changes in the hydroclimatic drivers and a rapid stream temperature response. Critically, riparian vegetation shading mitigated stream temperature increases by up to 0.16 ∘C decade−1 in smaller streams (i.e. < 30 km from the source). Our results provide strong support for basin-wide increases in stream temperature due to joint effects of rising air temperature and reduced streamflow. We suggest that some of these climate change-induced effects can be mitigated through the restoration and maintenance of riparian forests.

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“…Changes in the occurrence of water temperature and discharge associations were quantified using the Choc method [ 40 ], which identifies the water temperature and discharge associations that have become significantly more or less frequent over time. To facilitate the comparisons among rivers and seasons, we transformed these time series using their empirical cumulative distribution functions (i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Choc method involves the successive use of kernel density estimates and Mann–Kendall trend tests (see [ 40 ] for a full description of the method). Briefly, kernel density estimates are used to quantify the frequency of occurrence of any associations of water temperature and discharge for each year.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Objectively quantifying the consequences of joint temporal trends in environmental variables on key life cycle events is challenging [ 39 ]. We proposed the ‘Choc’ method to reveal changes in joint environmental conditions within different ecological niches [ 15 , 40 ]. This original method was tested on the spawning migration of the European eel in two rivers from Northern Europe and effectively highlighted the growing mismatch between the conditions preferentially selected by eels to migrate and those actually used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does global change increase the risk of maladaptation of Atlantic salmon migration through joint modifications of river temperature and discharge?

Arevalo

Maire²,

Tétard

et al. 2021

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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In freshwater ecosystems, water temperature and discharge are two intrinsically associated triggers of key events in the life cycle of aquatic organisms such as the migration of diadromous fishes. However, global changes have already profoundly altered the thermal and hydrological regimes of rivers, affecting the timing of fish migration as well as the environmental conditions under which it occurs. In this study, we focused on Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), an iconic diadromous species whose individuals migrate between marine nursery areas and continental spawning grounds. An innovative multivariate method was developed to analyse long-term datasets of daily water temperature, discharge and both salmon juvenile downstream and adult upstream migrations in three French rivers (the Bresle, Oir and Nivelle rivers). While all three rivers have gradually warmed over the last 35 years, changes in discharge have been very heterogeneous. Juveniles more frequently used warmer temperatures to migrate. Adults migrating a few weeks before spawning more frequently used warm temperatures associated with high discharges. This has already led to modifications in preferential niches of both life stages and suggests a potential mismatch between these populations' ecological preference and changes in their local environment due to global change.

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An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish

Cited by 18 publications

References 115 publications

Regional, multi-decadal analysis reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature

Regional, multi-decadal analysis reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature

Regional, multi-decadal analysis on the Loire River basin reveals that stream temperature increases faster than air temperature

Does global change increase the risk of maladaptation of Atlantic salmon migration through joint modifications of river temperature and discharge?

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