An Initial Investigation into the Cognitive Processes Underlying Mental Projection

Abstract

The objective of this study is to gain insight into the cognitive mechanisms that enable a person to project how a system or environment will change over time. Two potential mechanisms for mental projection are examined: (1) mental simulation (performing a mental play by play) and (2) pattern matching (identifying critical features of the situation and matching those with previous experience). A study was performed in cooperation with the National Weather Service Warning Decision Training Branch in which 28 severe weather warning forecasters participated in an interval-based simulation. At three decision points in this simulation, participants were asked to assess the threat level for tornado, wind, hail, and flash flood and to delineate their rationale for each assessment. Results are presented that support the existence of pattern matching and mental simulation strategies, that suggest different strategies may be effective in different situations, and that indicate forecasters utilize both strategies.

Situation Awareness in Command and Control

“…For example, it can be seen as the "ability to imagine people and objects consciously and to transform those people and objects through several transitions, finally picturing them in a different way than at the start" (Klein, 1998, p. 45). Additionally, it is viewed as a process in which mental models are used to match features of a situation with known similar situations to make inferences about likely future states of the system/situation or outcomes of proposed courses of action (Jones, Quoetone, Ferree, Magsig, & Bunting, 2003). Our next sub-process is intuitive decision making.…”