An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

Gregory, Richard D.; Willis, Stephen G.; Jiguet, Frédéric; Voříšek, Petr; Klvaňová, Alena; Strien, A. van; Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Couvet, Denis; Green, Rhys E.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0004678

Cited by 249 publications

(242 citation statements)

References 21 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

226

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Overall, variation in growing degree days appears to promote functional homogenization as greater homogenization occurs in areas where there is increased variance and less year‐to‐year predictability. Growing degree days has been included in climate envelope models of avian distributions a number of times (Beale et al., 2014; Gregory et al., 2009; Huntley, Collingham, Willis & Green, 2008), as it represents the thermal energy available during the growing season and therefore is linked to resource availability (Huntley et al., 2008). Our results suggest that the variation in this energy at the hectad scale selects directly on species traits and, thus, spatial heterogeneity of functional diversity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does functional homogenization accompany taxonomic homogenization of British birds and how do biotic factors and climate affect these processes?

White

Montgomery

Storchová

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Environmental change has reshuffled communities often causing taxonomic homogenization rather than differentiation. Some studies suggest that this increasing similarity of species composition between communities is accompanied by an increase in similarity of trait composition—functional homogenization—although different methodologies have failed to come to any consistent conclusions. Functional homogenization could have a large effect on ecosystem functioning and stability. Here, we use the general definition of homogenization as “reduced spatial turnover over time” to compare changes in Simpson's beta diversity (taxonomic turnover) with changes in Rao's quadratic entropy beta diversity (functional turnover) in British breeding birds at three spatial scales. Using biotic and climatic variables, we identify which factors may predispose a site to homogenization. The change in turnover measures between two time periods, 20 years apart, was calculated. A null model approach was taken to identify occurrences of functional homogenization and differentiation independent of changes in taxonomic turnover. We used conditional autoregressive models fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to determine how environmental drivers and factors relating to species distributions affect changes in spatial turnover of species and functional diversity. The measurement of functional homogenization affects the chance of rejection of the null models, with many sites showing taxonomic homogenization unaccompanied by functional homogenization, although occurrence varies with spatial scale. At the smallest scale, while temperature‐related variables drive changes in taxonomic turnover, changes in functional turnover are associated with variation in growing degree days; however, changes in functional turnover become more difficult to predict at larger spatial scales. Our results highlight the multifactorial processes underlying taxonomic and functional homogenization and that redundancy in species traits may allow ecosystem functioning to be maintained in some areas despite changes in species composition.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does functional homogenization accompany taxonomic homogenization of British birds and how do biotic factors and climate affect these processes?

White

Montgomery

Storchová

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Gaston, 2009), particularly with the increasing research on the impacts of climate change. Also, population trends are today combined with projections of future distribution ranges in order to define vulnerability indexes for species (Gregory et al, 2009). …”

Section: Shifts In the Elevational Distribution Of Breeding Birds In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Maggini¹,

Lehmann²,

Kéry³

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

144

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tClimate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either "move, adapt or die". In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.

show abstract

“…If undertaken carefully, with appropriate caution and appreciation of caveats and limitations (see Discussion), CEMbased studies are the best available guide for informing management and conservation of biodiversity (Hannah et al 16 2002;Pearson & Dawson 2003). Importantly, CEM data can also be linked to analyses of population change and the potential for no-analogue communities Gregory 2009;Holt et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%