An Index to Measure a System's Performance Risk

Abstract

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

Validating the Use of Performance Risk Indices for System-Level Risk and Maturity Assessments

“…The TPM Risk Index (TPM RI), for example, was first introduced by Garvey and Cho (2003) as a measure of a system's performance relative to threshold performance requirements to aid go or no-go decisions when using TRLs. Garvey and Cho defined the system performance risk index "as a function of a system's individual technical performance measures," (p. 1) where the "minimum value of the TPM marks the boundary between the regions of acceptable versus unacceptable performance risk" (p. 2).…”

“…Also, in critique of the Garvey and Cho (2003) TPM RI model, Lewis (2010) created a statistical framework to analyze technical performance risk using Monte Carlo simulation and named the Technical Risk Index Distribution approach. Lewis validated the new methodology with data from the Navy's Program Executive Office for Air Anti-Submarine Warfare, Assault and Special Mission Programs, PEO(A), TPM System (Coleman & Kulick, 1996;Lewis, 2010).…”

A Performance‐based Statistical Expert Judgment Model to Assess Technical Performance and Risk

“…Because dozens of TPMs might be tracked in any given development program, Garvey and Cho proposed the Technical Risk Index (TRI). The TRI is a method that normalizes TPM measures into an index that can be used to monitor program technical risk (Garvey and Cho 2003). TRIs of individual TPMs can also be combined to provide an overall program TRI.…”

“…And while shortfalls in technical performance ultimately manifest themselves in terms of cost and schedule overruns, methods like Earned Value Management are lagging indicators of program success (Rhodes et al 2009). To account for this, Garvey and Cho introduced a deterministic Technical Risk Index which is designed to quantify the amount of risk associated with technical performance in terms of threshold errors (Garvey and Cho 2003).…”

Decision driven risk measurement model to quantify reengineering risk in stakeholder perspective of legacy system

“…Suri in [11] provides a quantitative means to assess the risk associated with software development. Whereas Paul R. Garvey in [12] suggest how individual technical performance measures may be combined to measure and monitor the overall performance risk of a system.…”