An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia

Abstract

In February 1963, a huge landslide (ca. 1,950,000 m3) blocked the Visočica River and, thus, formed Zavoj Lake. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the importance of snowmelt in relation to landslide occurrence and to define the critical climatic conditions that may trigger massive winter landslides. We used monthly precipitation and average monthly maximum temperature data from meteorological and precipitation stations in the Visočica River basin (Dojkinci) and in the immediate proximity of Lake Zavoj (Pirot, Dimitrovgrad and Topli Do) as data inputs to the Snow-Melt Landslide (SML) index. It considers the summed monthly precipitation for previous months that continuously have an average maximum temperature below 0 °C. According to this method, the event at Zavoj Lake stands out among all other precipitation and snowmelt values for the past 72 years. After applying the SML index, all stations showed values of >300 mm for February 1963, which we consider as the threshold value for potential landslides appearance. In addition to meteorological data, we applied the SML index to data from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model outputs for the region from 2022 to 2100. As expected, climate change will have influenced the temperature values, especially during the winter. Conversely, the study area is experiencing drastic changes in land use caused by depopulation, leading to a reduced risk of winter landslides in the Visočica basin. We suggest that future climatic conditions in the area will make it more likely to experience extreme summer precipitation events, which might trigger large landslides. The SML method can be implemented for all landscapes that experience snowy winters, providing information in a timely manner so that local residents can react properly when the probability of landslide occurrence rises. The SML index, grounded in essential meteorological principles, provides a tailor-made, data-driven methodology applicable across varied geographical settings. Its utility extends to mitigating hydro-meteorological hazards on scales ranging from local to national scales, offering diverse and effective early warning solutions.

Unlocking Potential: Geographical Branding as a Possible Factor of Revitalization of Serbian Villages – A Case Study of the Visok Microregion

“…We used Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data in Figure 1. with horizontal resolutions from 1 arc-second (30 m) (SRTM) to 12.5 m (ALOS PALSAR RT1) (Das et al, 2014;Marković et al, 2024).…”

“…The average height of the Visočica basin is ~1146.47 m a.s.l. (Marković et al, 2024). The highest point of the Visok microregion is represented with peak Midžor (2169 m a.s.l.).…”

“…The population decreased from 13,914 (Census, 1953) to 504 (Census, 2022). None of these villages have a population exceeding 100 inhabitants (Census of 2022) (Marković et al, 2024). The population is in the final stage of demographic transition, and in almost all rural areas, the process of biological reproduction is at the minimum level of sustainability.…”

“…It had been submerged in a catastrophic event in February 1963. Afterward, the villages of Velika Lukanja and Mala Lukanja were also submerged following the construction of an artificial dam at the location where a natural dam had appeared (Marković et al, 2024). For this reason, these villages are not included in this study.…”