An Independent Analysis of the Performance Characteristics and Economic Outcomes of the Liza Phase 1 Development Offshore Guyana Using Public Domain Data

Abstract

An attempt was made to independently verify the proposed performance of the Liza 1 field using only data available in the public domain. The data used in modelling was sourced from news reports, company disclosures and the analogue Jubilee field in Ghana. Reservoir rock and fluid data from Jubilee Field was deemed an appropriate fit because of the corroboration provided by the Atlantic Drift Theory. A major challenge in creating the model, was determining the aerial extent of the field. According to Yang and Escalona (2011), the subsurface can be reasonably approximated using the surface topography which is possible via the use of GIS software. Google Earth Pro software was used to estimate the coordinates and areal extent of the Liza 1 reservoir. A scaled image of the field location showing the Guyana coastline was re-sized to fit the coastline in Google Pro and then the coordinates for the Liza field and wildcat well locations were estimated. This was used to create the isopach map and set reservoir boundaries to create the static and dynamic models in Schlumberger's Petrel E & P Software Platform (2017) and Computer Modelling Group IMEX Black Oil and Unconventional Simulator CMG IMEX (2016). The initialized model investigated the reservoir performance with and without pressure maintenance over a twenty (20) year period. The original oil in place (OOIP) estimated by the model was 7% larger than the OOIP estimated by ExxonMobil for Liza field. The model produced 35% of the OOIP compared to 50% of OOIP as forecasted by the operators. (See Table 1). The factors that strongly influenced this outcome were, the well positioning and the water injection rates. A significant percentage of the oil remained unproduced in the lower layers of the model after the 20-year period. Time did not permit further modelling to improve the performance of the model. Table 1 Comparison of The Created Model and ExxonMobil's Proposal for Liza. Property ExxonMobil's statement on Liza field Modelled field Result Original Oil in Place (MMbbl) 896 967 Oil Recovery Factor (%) 50 35 Gas production from the model would be used as gas injection from three injector wells and as fuel for the proposed 200 MW power plant for Guyana. Even so, significant volumes of natural gas remained unallocated and subsequently a valuable resource may have to be flared.