An Imputing Technique for Surface Water Extent Timeseries with Streamflow Discharges

Abstract

A continuous and multi-decadal surface water extent (SWE) record is vital for water resources management, flood risk assessment, and comprehensive climate change impact studies. The advancements in remote sensing technologies offer a valuable tool for monitoring surface water with high temporal and spatial resolution. However, challenges persist due to image gaps resulting from sensor issues and adverse weather conditions during data collection. To address this issue, one way to fill the gaps is by leveraging in situ measurements such as streamflow discharges (SFDs). We investigate the relationship between SFDs and Landsat-derived SWE in the New England region watersheds (eight-digit hydrological unit code (HUC)) on a monthly scale. While previous studies indicate the relationship exists, it remains elusive for larger domains. Recent research suggests using monthly average SFD data from a single stream gage to fill the gaps in SWE. However, as SWE represents a monthly maximum value, relying on a single gage with average values may not capture the complex dynamics of surface water. Our study introduces a novel approach by replacing the monthly average SFD with the maximum day streamflow discharge anomaly (SFDA) within a month. This adjustment aims to better reflect extreme scenarios, and we explore the relationship using ridge regression, incorporating data from all stream gages in the study domain. The SWE and SFDA are both transformed to stabilize the variance. We found that there is no discernible correlation between the magnitude of the correlation and the size of the basins. The correlations vary based on HUC and display a wide range, indicating the variances of the importance of stream gages to each HUC. The maximum correlation is found when the stream gage is located outside of the target HUC, further verifying the complex relationship between SWE and SFDA. Covering over 30 years of data across 45 HUCs, the imputing technique using ridge regression shows satisfactory performance for most of the HUCs analyzed. The results show that 41 out of 45 HUCs achieve a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of less than 10, and 44 out of 45 HUCs exhibit a normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of less than 0.1. Of 45 HUCs, 42 have an R-squared (R2) score higher than 0.7. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index (Ef) shows consistent results with R2, with the relative bias ranging from –0.02 to 0.03. The established relationship serves as an effective imputing technique, filling gaps in the time series of SWE. Moreover, our approach facilitates the identification and visualization of the most significant gages for each HUC, contributing to a more refined understanding of surface water dynamics.