An Improved Typhoon Simulation Method Based On Latin Hypercube Sampling Method

Abstract

In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of typhoon simulation method for extreme wind speed in typhoon prone areas, an improved typhoon simulation method is proposed by introducing the Latin hypercube sampling method into the traditional typhoon simulation method. In this paper, the improved typhoon simulation method is first given a detailed introduction. Then, this method is applied to the prediction of extreme wind speeds under various return periods in Hong Kong. To validate this method, two aspects of analysis is carried out, including correlation analysis among typhoon key parameters and prediction of extreme wind speeds under various return periods. The results show that the correlation coefficients among typhoon key parameters can be maintained satisfactorily with this improved typhoon simulation method. Compared with the traditional typhoon simulation method, extreme wind speeds under various return periods obtained with this improved typhoon simulation method are much closer to the results obtained with historical typhoon wind data.

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“…In the SP, one of the reputed techniques for scenario generation is the LHS, which works based on producing stratified scenarios for the uncertain parameters. Indeed, the LHS is adopted to excerpt samples with an even probability to cover the entire scenario space 41 . Unlike the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method that generates wholly random scenarios, LHS intends an equal-interval segmentation in producing near-random scenarios that pursue a standard uniform 42 .…”