An Improved Forecasting Method and Application of China’s Energy Consumption under the Carbon Peak Target

Abstract

In the process of economic development, the consumption of energy leads to environmental pollution. Environmental pollution affects the sustainable development of the world, and therefore energy consumption needs to be controlled. To help China formulate sustainable development policies, this paper proposes an energy consumption forecasting model based on an improved whale algorithm optimizing a linear support vector regression machine. The model combines multiple optimization methods to overcome the shortcomings of traditional models. This effectively improves the forecasting performance. The results of the projection of China’s future energy consumption data show that current policies are unable to achieve the carbon peak target. This result requires China to develop relevant policies, especially measures related to energy consumption factors, as soon as possible to ensure that China can achieve its peak carbon targets.

Forecasting of Carbon Emission in China Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree Optimized by Modified Whale Optimization Algorithm

“…We set up a local perturbation optimization [62] to prevent the algorithm from falling into a local optimum.…”

Impacts of financial development on the energy consumption in China from the perspective of poverty alleviation efficiency

“…Moreover, even if the proportion of coal consumption in China's energy structure has decreased, it is responsible for nearly 60% of the total as main energy source in 2020 (China Statistics Press, 2021). The considerable EC not only leads to ecological problems but also threats China's energy safety and green development (Liu and Diamond, 2005, Mi et al, 2017, Cui et al, 2021. Therefore, perusing decarbonization strategies is the urgent mission for China (Mi et al, 2018, Cheng et al, 2020.…”

Comprehensive assessment of building energy consumption in hot summer and cold winter areas based on carbon tax considerations

“…Construction sector as the one of the highest energy consumption sectors in China, is the core sector of Chinese energy consumption (Sun et al, 2022). According to statistics by National Bureau of Statistics of China, the energy consumption of construction sector in China has increased from 5.533 × 10 −3 to 9.142 × 10 −4 tce (1 tce = 29.3 GJ) during the period between 2010 and 2019, with the average annual growth rate of 6.5% (Cui et al, 2021). It is observed that the energy consumption of Chinese construction sector still experiences a growing trend.…”