An Improved Estimate of Tornado Occurrence in the Central Plains of the United States

Ray, Peter S.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Niu, Xufeng; Whissel, Bret

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1026:aieoto>2.0.co;2

Cited by 24 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Users of the data are cautioned to be aware of these problems, and to recognize that no simple method based, for example, on population density or proximity to a radar (e.g., Ray et al 2003) is going to do much to address the existing problems with the data. We have shown that local decisions about the reporting of severe thunderstorms, whatever might motivate them, are simply introducing more deleterious inhomogeneities into the data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States

Doswell

Brooks

Kay

2005

Weather and Forecasting

191

187

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The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for any day of the year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record of severe thunderstorm occurrence from 1980 to 1994 to produce daily maps and annual cycles at any point. Many aspects of this climatology have been identified in previous work, but the method allows for the consideration of the record in several new ways. A review of the raw data, broken down in various ways, reveals that numerous nonmeteorological artifacts are present in the raw data. These are predominantly associated with the marginal nontornadic severe thunderstorm events, including an enormous growth in the number of severe weather reports since the mid-1950s. Much of this growth may be associated with a drive to improve warning verification scores. The smoothed spatial and temporal distributions of the probability of nontornadic severe thunderstorm events are presented in several ways. The distribution of significant nontornadic severe thunderstorm reports (wind speeds Ն 65 kt and/or hailstone diameters Ն 2 in.) is consistent with the hypothesis that supercells are responsible for the majority of such reports.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States

Doswell

Brooks

Kay

2005

Weather and Forecasting

191

187

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Vescio and Thompson (2001) give no information about the possible magnitude of under-reporting for their data but other authors have estimated the probability of failing to observe US tornadoes. Ray et al (2003) estimate the probability to be about 0.4 in the 1980s. Anderson et al (2007) find that the probability varies geographically between about 0 and 0.6 for the period 1950-2000, with evidence that the probability is lower later in the period.…”

Section: Binary Predictandsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring forecast performance in the presence of observation error

Ferro

2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A new framework is introduced for measuring the performance of probability forecasts when the true value of the predictand is observed with error. In these circumstances, proper scoring rules favour good forecasts of observations rather than of truth and yield scores that vary with the quality of the observations. Proper scoring rules thus can favour forecasters who issue worse forecasts of the truth and can mask real changes in forecast performance if observation quality varies over time. Existing approaches to accounting for observation error provide unsatisfactory solutions to these two problems. A new class of ‘error‐corrected’ proper scoring rules is defined that solves both problems by producing unbiased estimates of the scores that would be obtained if the forecasts could be verified against the truth. A general method for constructing error‐corrected proper scoring rules is given for the case of categorical predictands, and error‐corrected versions of the Dawid–Sebastiani scoring rule are proposed for numerical predictands. The benefits of accounting for observation error in ensemble post‐processing and in forecast verification are illustrated in three data examples that include forecasts for the occurrence of tornadoes and of aircraft icing.

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“…Rapid increases in the numbers reported may be due to the introduction of new technology: implementation of the WSR‐88D radars with Doppler capability in about 1991, for example, may have led to increased reporting of tornados after that date. An analysis by Ray et al [2003] suggests that tornados are reported more often near population centers and that tornado occurrences prior to 1992 may have been underestimated by about 40%.…”

Section: The Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Why do tornados and hailstorms rest on weekends?

Bell¹

2011

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] This study shows for the first time statistical evidence that when anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern United States during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hailstorm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in summertime storm activity for 1995-2009 was found to be statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. It correlates well with previously observed weekly cycles of other measures of storm activity. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller and hydrometeors larger. According to simulations, the larger ice hydrometeors contribute to more hail. The reduced evaporation from the larger hydrometeors produces weaker cold pools. Simulations have shown that too cold and fast-expanding pools inhibit the formation of tornados. The statistical observations suggest that this might be the mechanism by which the weekly modulation in pollution aerosols is causing the weekly cycle in severe convective storms during summer over the eastern United States. Although we focus here on the role of aerosols, they are not a primary atmospheric driver of tornados and hailstorms but rather modulate them in certain conditions.

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An Improved Estimate of Tornado Occurrence in the Central Plains of the United States

Cited by 24 publications

References 5 publications

Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States

Climatological Estimates of Daily Local Nontornadic Severe Thunderstorm Probability for the United States

Measuring forecast performance in the presence of observation error

Why do tornados and hailstorms rest on weekends?

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