An Idea for Modelling Exogenous Shocks on Supply Networks Using Petri Nets

Abstract

Abstract-Almost all major companies are embedded in complex, global supply networks. Exogenous shocks on these networks (e.g. shortages of natural resources, natural disasters) can indirectly impact companies that are not even aware of their dependencies. This short-paper deals with the idea of modeling and analyzing impacts of exogenous shocks on supply networks using Petri nets. It is especially relevant for high-tech industries (wind and solar energy, besides others) as these are highly dependent e.g. upon rare earth metals. Today, 97% of the global rare earth metals supply is controlled by China, which is continuously lowering export rates due to own requirements. The final objective of this research stream will be to provide means to simulate and evaluate the vulnerability of companies against exogenous shocks affecting their supply networks.