An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with media coverage, vertical transmission and time delays

Teng, Timothy Robin; Macalalag, Jay Michael R.

doi:10.1063/1.5139167

Cited by 8 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Finally, we assume initially R u 0 = 0, hence The novel component of our approach is the feedback mechanism that provides a general framework to describe how communities change their behaviour as case numbers rise. This is similar to the influence of media reports that have been the subject of study for other infections diseases, such as influenza and HIV [37,38].…”

Section: Mathematical Modelsupporting

confidence: 73%

Hindsight is 2020 Vision: A Characterisation of the Global Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Warne

Ebert

Drovandi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background The global impact of COVID-19 and the country-specific responses to the pandemic provide an unparalleled opportunity to learn about different patterns of the outbreak and interventions. We model the global pattern of trajectories of reported COVID-19 cases during the primary response period, with the aim of learning from the past to prepare for the future. Methods Using Bayesian methods, we analyse the response to the COVID-19 outbreak for 158 countries for the period 22 January to 9 June 2020. This encompasses the period in which many countries imposed a variety of response measures and initial relaxation strategies. Instead of modelling specific intervention types and timings for each country explicitly, we adopt a stochastic epidemiological model including a feedback mechanism on virus transmission to capture complex nonlinear dynamics arising from continuous changes in community behaviour in response to rising case numbers. We analyse the overall effect of interventions and community responses across diverse regions. This approach mitigates explicit consideration of issues such as period of infectivity and public adherence to government restrictions. Results Countries with the largest cumulative case tallies are characterised by a delayed response, whereas countries that avoid substantial community transmission during the period of study responded quickly. Countries that recovered rapidly also have a higher case identification rate and small numbers of undocumented community transmission at the early stages of the outbreak. We also demonstrate that uncertainty in numbers of undocumented infections dramatically impacts the risk of second waves. Our approach is also effective at pre-empting potential second waves and flare-ups. Conclusions We demonstrate the utility of modelling to interpret community behaviour in the early epidemic stages. Two lessons learnt that are important for the future are: i) countries that imposed strict containment measures early in the epidemic fared better with respect to numbers of reported cases; and ii) broader testing is required early in the epidemic to understand the magnitude of undocumented infections and recover rapidly. We conclude that clear patterns of containment are essential prior to relaxation of restrictions and show that modelling can provide insights to this end.

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Section: Mathematical Modelsupporting

confidence: 73%

Hindsight is 2020 Vision: A Characterisation of the Global Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Warne

Ebert

Drovandi

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Contrastingly, vertical transmission occurs when the virus is passed directly from an infected mother to her pregnant or newborn child. 12 HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics has piqued the interest of applied mathematicians, epidemiologists [13][14][15][16] and biologists [17][18][19][20][21][22] due to the disease's worldwide menace. Various improvements have been made to May and Anderson's early models, [23][24][25] and particular issues have been discussed by researchers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various improvements have been made to May and Anderson's early models, [23][24][25] and particular issues have been discussed by researchers. 12, In Lu et al 2020 27 fostered a compartmental model for the yearly revealed HIV/AIDS MSM in the Zhejiang Region of China between 2007 to 2019 and anticipated that 90 percent of people tested for HIV/AIDS will have received treatment by 2020, while the screened extent will remain as low as 40 percent, and that antiretroviral treatment (ART) can actually control the transmission of HIV, even within the sight of medication opposition. In Rana and Sharma, 2020 30 presented a simple Likely to be exposed-Infected (i.e.SI) form of HIV/AIDS mathematical model, in view of the supposition that changing from an AIDS-infected to an HIV-infected individual is conceivable, in order to understand disease dynamics and develop strategies to reduce or control disease transmission among individual.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Qualitative analysis of HIV and AIDS disease transmission: impact of awareness, testing and effective follow up

et al. 2022

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Background: Since the early 1980s, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and its accompanying acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) have spread worldwide, becoming one of the world's major global health issues. From the beginning of the epidemic until 2020, about 79.3 million people became infected, with 36.3 million deaths due to AIDS illnesses. This huge figure is a result of those unaware of their status due to stigmatization and invariably spreading the virus unknowingly. Methods: Qualitative analysis through a mathematical model that will address HIV unaware individuals and the effect of an increasing defaulter on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS was investigated. The impact of treatment and the effect of inefficient follow-up on the transmission of HIV/AIDS were examined. The threshold for the effective reduction of the unaware status of HIV through testing, in response to awareness, and the significance of effective non-defaulting in treatment commonly called defaulters loss to follow-up as these individuals contribute immensely to the spread of the virus due to their increase in CD4+ count was determined in this study. Stability analysis of equilibrium points is performed using the basic reproduction number $R_0$, an epidemiological threshold that determines disease eradication or persistence in viral populations. We tested the most sensitive parameters in the basic reproduction numbers. The model of consideration in this study is based on the assumption that information (awareness) and non-stigmatization can stimulate change in the behaviours of infected individuals, and can lead to an increase in testing and adherence to treatment. This will in turn reduce the basic reproduction number, and consequently, the spread of the virus. Results: The results portray that the early identification and treatment are inadequate for the illness to be eradicated. Conclusions: Other control techniques, such as treatment adherence and effective condom usage, should be investigated in order to lessen the disease's burden.

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“…The novel feedback mechanism provides a general framework to describe how communities change their behaviour as case numbers rise. This is similar to the influence of media reports that have been the subject of study for influenza and HIV [30,31]. However, our approach includes a response strength parameter.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 74%

Hindsight is 2020 vision: a characterisation of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background The global impact of COVID-19 and the country-specific responses to the pandemic provide an unparalleled opportunity to learn about different patterns of the outbreak and interventions. We model the global pattern of reported COVID-19 cases during the primary response period, with the aim of learning from the past to prepare for the future. Methods Using Bayesian methods, we analyse the response to the COVID-19 outbreak for 158 countries for the period 22 January to 9 June 2020. This encompasses the period in which many countries imposed a variety of response measures and initial relaxation strategies. Instead of modelling specific intervention types and timings for each country explicitly, we adopt a stochastic epidemiological model including a feedback mechanism on virus transmission to capture complex nonlinear dynamics arising from continuous changes in community behaviour in response to rising case numbers. We analyse the overall effect of interventions and community responses across diverse regions. This approach mitigates explicit consideration of issues such as period of infectivity and public adherence to government restrictions. Results Countries with the largest cumulative case tallies are characterised by a delayed response, whereas countries that avoid substantial community transmission during the period of study responded quickly. Countries that recovered rapidly also have a higher case identification rate and small numbers of undocumented community transmission at the early stages of the outbreak. We also demonstrate that uncertainty in numbers of undocumented infections dramatically impacts the risk of multiple waves. Our approach is also effective at pre-empting potential flare-ups. Conclusions We demonstrate the utility of modelling to interpret community behaviour in the early epidemic stages. Two lessons learnt that are important for the future are: i) countries that imposed strict containment measures early in the epidemic fared better with respect to numbers of reported cases; and ii) broader testing is required early in the epidemic to understand the magnitude of undocumented infections and recover rapidly. We conclude that clear patterns of containment are essential prior to relaxation of restrictions and show that modelling can provide insights to this end.

show abstract

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with media coverage, vertical transmission and time delays

Cited by 8 publications

References 10 publications

Hindsight is 2020 Vision: A Characterisation of the Global Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Hindsight is 2020 Vision: A Characterisation of the Global Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Qualitative analysis of HIV and AIDS disease transmission: impact of awareness, testing and effective follow up

Hindsight is 2020 vision: a characterisation of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic

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