An HFM‐CREAM model for the assessment of human reliability and quantification

Abstract

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a proactive approach to model and evaluate systematic human errors and has been extensively implemented in various complicated systems. The assessment of human errors relies heavily on the knowledge and experience of experts in real‐world cases. Moreover, there are usually specific sorts of uncertainty while experts use linguistic labels to evaluate human failure events. In this context, this paper seeks to establish a new model based on the hesitant fuzzy matrix (HFM) and the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) to conduct a quantitative analysis of human errors. This model handles the multiple crisp scores of the common performance conditions (CPCs) given by experts according to the context description in terms of CPCs, determines the weights of CPCs by the HFM, and elicits the human error probability (HEP) point estimation formula considering consequences based on the CREAM. Finally, the effectiveness and practicality of the presented HFM‐CREAM model are demonstrated through the emergency response analysis of the steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) in nuclear power plant.

Human Reliability Analysis for Fishing Vessels in Korea Using Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM)

“…When an expert fills out the table for the above question, the conditional probability is calculated using Equation (19).…”

“…The weight value of each CPC surveyed by experts is presented in Table 15. All conditional probabilities can be calculated by substituting the probabilities according to the level in Table 14 and the weight values in Table 15 into Equation (19). Equation (20) is the probability of having a supportive influence on the fatigue condition when the level of fatigue is appropriate, the level of adequacy of training and experience is acceptable, and the level of crew collaboration quality is inappropriate.…”

“…The second-generation HRA methods are used in various industries by considering human information processing systems and situational factors, and representative methods include a technique for human event analysis (ATHEANA) [15] and the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) [16]. Unlike ATHEANA, which specializes in the field of nuclear power plants, CREAM is widely used to evaluate human error in various industries such as petrochemicals (Mazlomi et al [17]), power plants (Tang et al [18], Lin et al [19]), marine (Ung [20], Chen et al [21]), and aviation (Lam et al [22], Lin et al [23]), etc.…”

Reliability optimization model in man‐machine systems considering human factors in uncertain situations

“…Correspondingly, Wang and her colleagues proposed an improved weighted fuzzy rule-based CREAM model used for quantifying human reliability in subway construction. 43 Some other related works such as 44,45 incorporated fuzzy logic into the human reliability analysis or the system performance evaluation.…”

Risk assessment of man‐machine systems under safety‐critical multitasking situations

“…The basic events of FT can involve HEs, MFs, and AE, while they are usually assumed to be statistically independent. 28 To deeply analyze HE which is a critical factor causing system failure 29,30 or even widespread adverse consequences, 31 many FTA methods combined with task analysis (TA) and human reliability analysis (HRA) are proposed. 22,28,32,33 TA shows how the operator performs tasks sequentially through interacting with colleagues or machines, and HRA shows what HEs may occur during performing each step of tasks.…”