The goal of this paper is to describe an elementary combinatorial heuristic that predicts Hardy & Littlewood's extended Goldbach's conjecture. We examine common features of other heuristics in additive prime number theory, such as "Cramér's model"-like and density-type arguments, both of which our heuristic draws from.Apart from the prime number theorem, our argument is entirely elementary. The idea is to model sums of two primes by a hypergeometric probability distribution and then draw heuristic conclusions from its concentration behavior, which follows from Hoeffding-type bounds.2010 Mathematics Subject Classification. 11P32.