An explorative object-oriented Bayesian network model for oil spill response in the Arctic Ocean

Abstract

This paper proposes an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network model to study oil spill mitigative measures using cost-effectiveness as a decision-making factor. The cost-effectiveness is defined as the ratio of dollar spent to the efficiency of oil removal in the spill area. The proposed model considers the complexity, lack of data, and uncertainties in an oil spill and response modelling scenario for Arctic shipping accident occurrence. The crude oil release, slick formation, weathering and transport, ecological impact, and response scenarios are modelled using Bayesian Network. Application of the model is demonstrated using a hypothetical scenario of an oil spill involving a ship in the Arctic region. The results show that a combination of in-situ burning, mechanical and manual recovery, and use of dispersants would cost the highest, while the use of in-situ burning, and dispersants gives the cheapest option. The study provides a deeper understanding of oil spill dynamics and effectiveness of the response techniques. The proposed model could serve as a useful tool for oil spill response decision-making.

On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters: Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project

“…A10 -Dynamic fugacity model for accidental oil release during Arctic shipping (Afenyo et al, 2016a). P9 -An explorative object-oriented Bayesian network model for oil spill response in the Arctic Ocean (Afenyo et al, 2020).…”

Rethinking disaster risk for ecological risk assessment

“…Environmental and development disasters are the product of environmental hazards capable of catastrophic impact (whether from the biophysical environment or human activities) and a human or valued natural system that is exposed and vulnerable to the hazard (Aven, 2010;Sajid et al, 2020;IPCC, 2022a). Disaster hazards have highly consequential effects across a range of topics relevant to environmental management and sustainable development including wildlife disease (Beauvais et al, 2019), dam breaches (Jakob et al, 2016), glacial calving and coastal erosion (Overland, 2021), flooding (also due to climate change) and coastal development (Tsoukala et al, 2016), wildfire (Taylor et al, 2013), oil and gas spills (Afenyo et al, 2020;Sajid et al, 2020) and mining (Yang et al, 2021). Indeed, rare events and natural disasters have been recognized as contributing to species declines and extinctions (Penn and Deutsch, 2022), and development disasters (such as oil spills and mine tailings releases) have contributed to environmental devastation and severe social disruption in many contexts (Garcia et al, 2017).…”