An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses

Abstract

In order to evaluate potential trends in global natural catastrophe losses, it is important to compensate for changes in asset values and exposures over time. We create a Global Normalized Catastrophe Catalogue covering weatherrelated catastrophe losses in the principal developed (Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, South Korea, United States) and developing (Caribbean, Central America, China, India, the Philippines) regions of the world. We survey losses from 1950 through 2005, although data availability means that for many regions the record is incomplete for the period before the 1970s even for the largest events. After 1970, when the global record becomes more comprehensive, we find evidence of an annual upward trend for normalized losses of 2% per year. Conclusions are heavily weighted by US losses, and their removal eliminates any statistically significant trend. Large events, such as Hurricane Katrina and China flood losses in the 1990s, also exert a strong impact on trend results. In addition, once national losses are further normalized relative to per capita wealth, the significance of the post-1970 global trend disappears. We find insufficient evidence to claim a statistical relationship between global temperature increase and normalized catastrophe losses.

A Normative Exploration of the Link Between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

“…Increased investments in disaster risk reduction have lead to a significant reduction in human casualties (Kahn 2005;Kellenberg and Mobarak 2008), but economic losses from natural disasters have been growing as fast or even faster than economic growth in many countries, see for instance Barredo (2009), Miller et al (2008, Neumayer and Barthel (2010), Nordhaus (2010), Pielke et al (2008), and Bouwer et al (2007). This evolution can be explained by population and economic growth (richer countries have more assets that can be lost or damaged), and is magnified by an increasing exposure to risk, even in relative terms (an increasing share of assets is located in at-risk areas) (Schmidt et al 2009;Neumayer and Barthel 2010;Bouwer 2011;Jongman et al 2012;IPCC 2012 hurricane-prone areas can explain why hurricane losses are increasing more rapidly than GDP in the US (Pielke et al 2008).…”

Bereinigung sozioökonomischer Effekte bei Schäden tropischer Wirbelstürme für eine Analyse zum Einfluss des Klimawandels

“…Eine ähnliche Analyse führen Miller et al (2008) Goldenberg et al 2001, Zhang und Delworth 2006, Kossin und Vimont 2007. Es gibt aber auch Klimawissenschaftler, die keinen Einfl uss einer natürlichen Oszillation sehen.…”

An Exploration of the Link between Development, Economic Growth, and Natural Risk

“…This is not an isolated situation. Increasing investments in disaster risk reduction have lead to a significant reduction in human casualties (Kahn, 2005;Kellenberg and Mobarak, 2008), but economic losses from natural disasters have been growing as fast or even faster than economic growth in many countries; see for instance statistical analyses in Barredo (2009), Miller et al (2008, Neumayer and Barthel (2010), Nordhaus (2010), Pielke et al (2008), and Bouwer et al (2007). Climate change is not responsible of this evolution (Schmidt et al, 2009;Neumayer and Barthel, 2010;Bouwer, 2011;IPCC, 2011).…”