An experimental analysis of overconfidence in tariff choice

Dowling, Katharina; Stich, Lucas; Spann, Martin

doi:10.1007/s11846-020-00425-w

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Xia and Li analyzed the data from the 2012 Chinese Survey of Consumer Finance and showed that financial literacy overconfidence is positively connected with stock market participation [23]. Dowling et al investigated the effects of overconfidence on the decision to choose between a pay-per-use and a flat-rate option and discovered that overconfident consumers underestimate their actual usage [24]. Overconfidence and game theory have been merged in a few research.…”

Section: Overconfidence Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Agent Simulation of Product Diffusion in Online Social Networks from the Perspective of Overconfidence and Network Effects

et al. 2022

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Online social networks (OSNs) have steadily become the primary mechanism of product promotion. However, previous studies have paid little concern to the irrational consumer behavior (e.g., overconfidence) and network effects that influence product diffusion in OSNs. We use overconfidence theory, network effects theory, and evolutionary game theory to build a multi-agent simulation model that captures the nonlinear relationship between individual actions to examine the effects of overconfidence and network effects on product diffusion in OSNs. We found that (1) overestimation is profitable for improving the diffusion level of product diffusion in OSNs and maintaining market stability; however, the closer the degree of overprecision is to 1 (i.e., individuals are more rational), the more stable the market will be. We also found that (2) moderate network effect intensity can better promote product diffusion on the social network. When the network effect intensity is small, the non-overconfident scenario has the highest percentage of adoption. The overprecision scenario has the highest percentage of adoption where the network effect intensity is high. Additionally, we found that (3) the scale-free network is more conducive to the diffusion of products in OSNs, while the small-world network is more susceptible to overconfidence and network effect. This research laid the groundwork for investigating dynamic consumer behavior utilizing a multi-agent method, network effects theory, and a psychological theory.

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Section: Overconfidence Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Agent Simulation of Product Diffusion in Online Social Networks from the Perspective of Overconfidence and Network Effects

et al. 2022

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“…The great influence of this personality trait on successful corporate management is reflected in an extensive body of research that deals with self-confidence, its exaggerated manifestations and its consequences (e.g., Billett and Qian 2008;Malmendier and Tate 2015;Dowling et al 2021). This literature is very broad, divided into different areas, and provides mixed evidence regarding the effects of overconfidence (e.g., Aghazadeh et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?

Kunz

Sonnenholzner

2022

Rev Manag Sci

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Organizational resilience provides firms with the capability to face adverse circumstances successfully. Therefore, it constitutes an indispensable capability for each company. As indicated by Upper Echelon Theory, particularly executives and their personal traits exert a major impact on organizational capabilities, decision-making as well as action taking. Thus, they also should play an important role in promoting organizational resilience. However, so far literature lacks a comprehensive understanding regarding these relations. Accordingly, the present paper strives to add to such a comprehensive understanding with a particular focus on managerial overconfidence, one of the most widely and controversially discussed personality trait of executives. To pursue this goal, we develop a model comprising the relevant components of organizational resilience in terms of important resources, conduct a systematic literature review to identify the major corporate areas that are affected by managerial overconfidence and draw conclusions for the identified findings on the relation between organizational resilience and overconfidence. The analysis indicates a positive impact on social resources, a rather negative impact on procedural resources and a mixed impact on financial resources, where e.g. the effect on takeover activities is negative while the impact on financing preferences is at least partly positive. Moreover, the identified literature in large parts provides evidence regarding material resources, while social and procedural resources are covered to a lesser extent, indicating a need for further research.

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Choosing a flat rate over a pay-per-use tariff for public transport: Do psychological factors matter?

Weibel,

Dang,

von Arx

2024

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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An experimental analysis of overconfidence in tariff choice

Cited by 3 publications

References 44 publications

Multi-Agent Simulation of Product Diffusion in Online Social Networks from the Perspective of Overconfidence and Network Effects

Multi-Agent Simulation of Product Diffusion in Online Social Networks from the Perspective of Overconfidence and Network Effects

Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?

Choosing a flat rate over a pay-per-use tariff for public transport: Do psychological factors matter?

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