2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2018.08.013
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An evidential Markov decision making model

Abstract: The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model based on Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and Markov modelling is proposed to address this issue and model the real human decision-making process. In an evidential framework, the states are extended by introducing an uncertain state which represents the hesitance of a … Show more

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Cited by 85 publications
(46 citation statements)
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“…The probability distribution function is a useful tool to model the uncertain information, and it has been applied in plenty fields including information fusion, target recognition, and so forth. The probability (belief) distribution function based on the power set also obtained lots of focuses, such as belief conflict, evolutionary games, supplier selection, and failure mode and effects analysis, prediction, and decision making .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The probability distribution function is a useful tool to model the uncertain information, and it has been applied in plenty fields including information fusion, target recognition, and so forth. The probability (belief) distribution function based on the power set also obtained lots of focuses, such as belief conflict, evolutionary games, supplier selection, and failure mode and effects analysis, prediction, and decision making .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Among these methods, Dempster‐Shafer evidence theory is one of the most widely used math tools in many engineering applications such as pattern recognition and decision‐making . Evidence theory has many advantages to handle uncertain information .…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With the rapid development of human society, the social environment has become more and more complex, which makes us have difficulties in making actual decision [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Therefore, in recent years, more and more attention has been paid to multi-attribute decision making [10][11][12][13][14][15][16].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%