An evaluation of the chill overlap model to predict flowering time in apple tree

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Pope, Katherine; Goodwin, Ian

doi:10.1016/j.scienta.2015.11.032

Cited by 45 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 52 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This trade-off could be responsible for the interannual variability often reported in chill and heat requirement estimations. Assuming an overlap between chilling and warming periods has been shown to improve model fits (Darbyshire et al, 2016;Pope et al, 2014).…”

Section: Identification Of Chilling and Warming Periods By Pls Regresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed chilling appears to counteract flowering advances of apricot in southern UK

Martínez‐Lüscher

Hadley

Ordidge

et al. 2017

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Temperatures are rising across the globe, and the UK is no exception. Spring phenology of perennial fruit crops is to a large extent determined by temperature during effective chilling (endo-dormancy) and heat accumulation (eco-dormancy) periods. We used the apricot flowering records of the UK National Fruit Collections (NFC) to determine the influence of temperature trends over recent decades (1960 to 2014) on apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) flowering time. Using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression, we determined the respective periods for calculating chill and heat accumulation. Results suggested intervals between September 27 th and February 26 th and between December 31 st and April 12 th as the effective chilling and warming periods, respectively. Flowering time was correlated with temperature during both periods, with warming during chilling corresponding to flowering delays by 4.82 d°C-1 , while warming during heat accumulation was associated with bloom advances by 9.85 d°C-1. Heat accumulation started after accumulating 62.7 ± 5.6 Chill Portions, and flowering occurred after a further 3744 ± 1538 Growing Degree Hours (above a base temperature of 4°C, with optimal growth at 26°C). When examining the time series, the increase in temperature during the chilling period did not appear to decrease overall chill accumulation during the chilling period but to delay the onset of chill accumulation and the completion of the average chill accumulation necessary to start heat accumulation. The resulting delay in heat responsiveness appeared to weaken the phenology-advancing effect of spring warming. These processes may explain why apricot flowering time remained relatively unchanged despite significant temperature increases. A consequence of this may be a reduction of frost risk for early flowering crops such as apricot in the UK.

show abstract

Section: Identification Of Chilling and Warming Periods By Pls Regresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delayed chilling appears to counteract flowering advances of apricot in southern UK

Martínez‐Lüscher

Hadley

Ordidge

et al. 2017

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The selected dynamic chill model was originally developed to study dormancy break of peach trees in Israel [6,23] and is, to date, widely accepted as the most robust phenological model for this Agronomy 2020, 10, 73 7 of 21 purpose [5,9,21]. As it does not predict phenological stages beyond dormancy break, it has been combined with a growing degree hour (GDH) accumulation estimation following [4], using the function 'Bloom_prediction3 in the R package 'chillR' [26].…”

Section: Dynamic + Gdh Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This continuous, undynamic approach has the advantage of fast and transparent computations that allow for easy adaptation to different fruits and local conditions. However, it results in less reliable estimations of chilling requirements [21]. Hence, the continuous model only leads to reasonable results within a narrow range of temperatures, where chilling is fulfilled before an accumulation of growing degree hours is possible.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Drepper

Gobin

Remy³

et al. 2020

Agronomy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Based on observations for the beginning of the flowering stage of Malus domestica (apple) and Pyrus communis (pear) for the 1950-2018 period, phenological trends in north-eastern Belgium were investigated in function of temperatures during dormancy. Moreover, two different phenological models were adapted and evaluated. Median flowering dates of apple were on average 9.5 days earlier following warm dormancy periods, and 11.5 days for pear, but the relationship between bloom date and temperature was found not to be linear, suggesting delayed fulfilment of dormancy requirements due to increased temperatures during the chilling period. After warm chilling periods, an average delay of 5.0 and 10.6 days in the occurrence date of dormancy break was predicted by the phenological models while the PLSR reveals mixed signals regarding the beginning of flowering. Our results suggest overlapping chilling and forcing processes in a transition phase. Regarding the beginning of flowering, a dynamic chill model coupled to a growing degree days estimation yielded significantly lower prediction errors (on average 5.0 days) than a continuous chill-forcing model (6.0 days), at 99% confidence level. Model performance was sensitive to the applied parametrization method and limitations for the application of both models outside the past temperature ranges became apparent.Other weather-related hazards were several light frost nights, frequent local hailstorms, and three heatwaves in 2019, an extensive drought period for more than two months in combination with a heat wave in 2018, water excess and storms in 2016, and a devastating summer storm in 2011. The consequences of extreme weather in addition to the Russian embargo on fruit imports since 2014 led the entire Belgian fruit sector into an officially recognized crisis, to the extent that federal and regional governments are preparing policies to increase resilience in the face of more frequent extreme weather events and in the context of a changing climate in general.Therefore, a better understanding is needed of the impacts of warming on phenology in the specific case of apple and pear cultivation in Flanders. By means of adapted phenological models, variations in flowering and the related frost-sensitive stage can be estimated across temporal and spatial scales, which can support decision-making regarding (new) orchard locations and cultivar selection.Following [3], the part of the growth cycle between late summer and budburst is conceptualized as dormancy period, and can be decomposed in a sequence of paradormancy, endodormancy, and ecodormancy phases. Endodormancy, i.e., 'chilling period', is induced by lower temperatures in late fall. The moment that a species' specific exposure to cold temperatures has been fulfilled, ecodormancy is induced and the accumulation of growing degree hours becomes the determining process for further phenological development [4], i.e., 'forcing period'. From then onwards, warmer temperatures favor earlier and no longer later bloom. Insolation and tem...

show abstract

“…'Burlat' confirmed a relation between flowering dates and latitudes, with flowering periods being significantly later in Northern growing sites (Figure 1). Although the dataset is not homogeneous regarding the record length, they represent a valuable asset for phenological studies, phenology models having been successfully tested and optimized using data sourced from different sites (Andreini et al, 2014;Darbyshire et al, 2016).…”

Section: Flowering Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sweet cherry phenology in the context of climate change: a systems biology approach

Wenden¹,

Mariadassou²

2017

Acta Hortic.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In temperate fruit trees, most key phenological stages are highly dependent on environmental conditions. In particular, correct timing for dormancy and flowering is essential to ensure good fruit production and quality. Consequently, a swiftly-changing environment will put temperate fruit crops at risk in the coming decades. Global changes in environmental conditions include warmer winters and higher risks of frosts in the early spring, which may lead to a wide range of problems in relation to flower and fruit set, sunscald, cross-pollination or novel host-pest interactions. In addition, hotter summers might affect fruit development and dormancy onset. Considering the time necessary to breed new cultivars better adapted to future climatic conditions, one of the strategies is to develop predictive tool as a support for simulating the behaviour of ideotypes in the context of warmer climatic scenarios. Here, we present a collection of sweet cherry flowering data from European sites. Statistical analyses conducted on 'Burlat' flowering dates collected in Bordeaux reveal the key periods for chill and heat accumulation during dormancy. Additionally, we propose a way of combining different data and approaches, and integrate them into a predictive model as an assisting tool for sweet cherry breeding strategies.

show abstract

An evaluation of the chill overlap model to predict flowering time in apple tree

Cited by 45 publications

References 52 publications

Delayed chilling appears to counteract flowering advances of apricot in southern UK

Delayed chilling appears to counteract flowering advances of apricot in southern UK

Comparing Apple and Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal

Sweet cherry phenology in the context of climate change: a systems biology approach

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About