An estimation of offset supply for the Korean emissions trading scheme using the Bass diffusion model

Yoon, InTaek; Yoon, Sohyun Kate

doi:10.1504/ijgw.2017.084017

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2019

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“…The model consists of a differential equation that relates current sales growth to past accumulated sales levels. This modelling approach has become extremely popular, not only within the context of new-product diffusion patterns [2][3][4][5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting product sales with a stochastic Bass model

Grasman

Kornelis

2019

J.Math.Industry

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With the Bass model and data of previous sales a point estimate of future sales can be made for the purpose of stock management. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of that estimate a confidence interval can be of use. In this study such an interval is constructed from a Bass model extended with a noise term. The size of the noise is assumed to be proportional with the yearly sales. It is also assumed that the deviation from the deterministic solution is sufficiently small to make a small noise approximation. This perturbation takes the form of a time dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. For the variance of the perturbation an exact expression can be given which is needed in order to obtain confidence intervals.

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