An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere

Abstract

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

Water and life from snow: A trillion dollar science question

“…This cooling benefit doubles when we add in the effect of snow‐covered Arctic sea ice [ Curry et al ., ]. Economic losses from reductions in snow‐covered area [ Mudryk et al ., ], and the associated losses of Earth cooling, have been valued at $575 billion [ Euskirchen et al ., ; see also Lutz and Howarth , ]. Beyond these essential life services, snow also provides a platform for the multibillion dollar outdoor recreation industry [ Burakowski and Magnusson , ].…”

Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean

“…The presence of SIAF would increase the present value of mitigation cost from US$8 trillion to a range between US$9.7 trillion and US$11.5 trillion. Although these extra costs are significant and can vary depending on the discount rates used [Stern, 2008;Nordhaus, 2007], they are relatively low when compared to the projected global economic growth during the century, with the estimated economic benefits that the Arctic provides to our economy in terms of regulation of the climate system [Euskirchen et al, 2013] a The table shows the results of alternative timing of a full month free of Artic sea ice between 2040 and 2060. A linear trend is set in order to achieve a radiative forcing of 0.29 W m −2 by that date, as in Figure 1.…”

The Expanding Footprint of Rapid Arctic Change

“…Sea ice loss has global consequences because sea ice helps to regulate the Earth's climate. The bright surface of sea ice reflects much of the incoming solar radiation back into space, preventing that energy from warming the planet (Euskirchen et al, ). As sea ice coverage declines, the exposed darker ocean water absorbs upward of 9 times more solar radiation in summer.…”