An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

Abstract

ResumeA surprising number of people die on Polish highways every year. Despite the fact that number is decreasing year after year, it is still rather considerable. Due to the epidemic, the costs of the road accidents were significantly lowered, but they still remain fairly large. Understanding the roads where the majority of accidents happen and the anticipated number of accidents in the next years are necessary to lower this number. The purpose of the article was to forecast the number of accidents that would happen on Polish roads based on the kind of roads. To do this, annual accident statistics from the Police's statistics for the years 2001-2021 were reviewed, and a forecast for the years 2022-2031 was produced. It is clear that either the accident rate is increasing or it is steady. Predictions also suggest that a large increase in accidents on Polish roads may be expected given the current situation.

Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland by Road Type

“…Selected time series models and exponential models were used to forecast the number of accidents. Forecasting of the number of road accidents using factors influencing this value and the use of other forecasting methods (e.g., neural networks, linear regression) can be found in the author's other work in this area [49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61]. In their study, the authors used the police's statics data, not taking into account other factors affecting the occurrence of a traffic accident.…”