An “epidemic” model of sexual intercourse prevalences for black and white adolescents

Rowe, David C.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Meseck-Bushey, Sylvia

doi:10.1080/19485565.1989.9988728

Cited by 13 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Associating with deviant peers has been linked to earlier initiation of intercourse (Rowe et al, 1989a;Whitbeck et al, 1999). Conversely, spending time with conventional peers in extracurricular activities is negatively associated with adolescent intercourse (Miller & Sneesby, 1988).…”

Section: Peer Infl Uencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adolescent Sexuality: Behavior and Meaning

Crockett¹,

Raffaelli

Moilanen

2006

Blackwell Handbook of Adolescence

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Section: Peer Infl Uencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adolescent Sexuality: Behavior and Meaning

Crockett¹,

Raffaelli

Moilanen

2006

Blackwell Handbook of Adolescence

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“…The other reason for accepting the random assortment assumption is empirical-relaxing the assumption gives similar model results to accepting it because changes in parameter values can absorb the effects of nonrandom contacts (Rowe & Rodgers, 1991;Rowe, Rodgers, & Meseck-Bushey, 1989).…”

Section: Assumptions Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The utility of the epidemic approach has been demonstrated in understanding a variety of social behaviors such as heroin use, technological innovations, riots, sexual intercourse, and smoking and alcohol use (Hamblin & Miller, 1976;MacKintosh & Stewart, 1972,1979; Rowe, Rodgers, & Meseck-Bushey, 1989; Rowe & Rodgers, 1991). An "epidemic" model describes mathematically the transitions among different states, e.g., from susceptible to infected.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

An “Epidemic” Model of Adolescent Cigarette Smoking

Rowe

Chassin

Presson

et al. 1992

J Applied Social Pyschol

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The prevalence of regular smoking increases rapidly during adolescence. We applied modeling methods from the study of epidemic infectious disease to smoking behavior. Our “epidemic” models dealt with the process of transition among four states: nonsmoker (susceptible), trier (exposed), regular smoker (infected), and ex‐smoker (recovered). The best fitting model was one in which the transition from nonsmoker to trier was a social contagion process where nonsmokers contacted either triers or regular smokers. All other transitions were treated as constant rate processes in which a constant proportion of eligible individuals made the transition in a given year. The recursive equation model embodying these assumptions was able to predict accurately the proportion of adolescents in each state in Grades 6–11. Our results support a “stage” model of smoking, suggesting that different psychological and physiological processes are involved in the initiation of smoking than in developing a habit of regular smoking. A possible sex difference was found in the non‐contact transition between trier and smoker states, with the transition being more probable in females than in males.

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“…The smoking models discussed there are examples of a class of models called "epidemic models of the onset of social activities" (EMOSA models). They have been developed to describe the explicit social contagion process through which adolescents influence one another to engage in certain adolescent behavior, including smoking and drinking (Rodgers, 2003;Rowe & Rodgers, 1991) and sexual behavior (Rodgers & Rowe, 1993;Rowe, Rodgers, & Meseck-Bushey, 1989). These models are operationalized as equations, each term of which explicitly matches a piece of the reality that the equations are designed to fit.…”

Section: Behavior Fit To Designed Models Designed To Fit Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

The epistemology of mathematical and statistical modeling: A quiet methodological revolution.

Rodgers¹

2010

American Psychologist

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190

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A quiet methodological revolution, a modeling revolution, has occurred over the past several decades, almost without discussion. In contrast, the 20th century ended with contentious argument over the utility of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) Keywords: mathematical models, statistical models, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), Sir Ronald Fisher, teaching methodology A relatively silent methodological revolution has occurred over the past several decades, almost without discussion. Instead, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has received virtually all of the attention. Statistical and mathematical modeling-which subsume NHST-have developed into a powerful epistemological system, within which NHST plays an important though not expansive role. To most practicing researchers in psychology, as well as in most statistics and methodology textbooks, NHST is the primary epistemological system used to organize quantitative methods. Instead, researchers and textbook authors should be discussing how to create and compare behavioral models that are represented mathematically and evaluated statistically.Models are all around us, and the term model has many meanings. For example, I built model airplanes as a child. We see male and female fashion models in magazines. Psychologists study role models. These disparate concepts share in common that they are all simplifications of a complex reality. The airplane model does not fly, though its physical appearance matches one that does. The runway model epitomizes beauty and fashion. Role models engage in idealized (though perhaps unrealistic) behavior. In the same sense, our language is also a model. Speaking or writing creates a verbal instantiation of a complex reality. Our language can be nuanced and evocative, as when Elizabeth Barrett Browning wrote about love. Yet language has inherent limitations that necessarily simplify the complexity that it describes. For example, the word love must not have much precision, if I can simultaneously love barbecue, John Steinbeck, and my wife (although precision is added by context, of course). Clearly, language structures have both flexibility and limitations as models of the complicated reality they describe, and so do mathematical models, the topic of this article.What are mathematical models? To Neimark and Estes (1967, p. v), "a mathematical model is a set of assumptions together with implications drawn from them by mathematical reasoning." Why not just use verbal or conceptual models? Bjork (1973)

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An “epidemic” model of sexual intercourse prevalences for black and white adolescents

Cited by 13 publications

References 18 publications

Adolescent Sexuality: Behavior and Meaning

Adolescent Sexuality: Behavior and Meaning

An “Epidemic” Model of Adolescent Cigarette Smoking

The epistemology of mathematical and statistical modeling: A quiet methodological revolution.

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