An End-to-End Model Reveals Losers and Winners in a Warming Mediterranean Sea

Moullec, Fabien; Barrier, Nicolas; Drira, Sabrine; Guilhaumon, François; Marsaleix, Patrick; Somot, Samuel; Ulses, Caroline; Velez, Laure; Shin, Yunne-Jaï

doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00345

Cited by 67 publications

(81 citation statements)

References 135 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Eddy-parameterising models still permit simulation of large-scale features and trends in marine biogeochemistry [132]. However, the ocean features that drive both the climate dynamics and the dynamics of many fish species ideally require much greater model resolution and regional realism [130,133]. The computational cost of increased spatial resolution in models is compounded by the growing complexity of marine biogeochemistry models through expensive tracer advection [134].…”

Section: Biogeochemistrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models

Hewitt

Roberts

Mathiot

et al. 2020

Curr Clim Change Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose of Review Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity.

show abstract

Section: Biogeochemistrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models

Hewitt

Roberts

Mathiot

et al. 2020

Curr Clim Change Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In the Mediterranean Sea LME, the major driving forces behind species dynamics/changes include primary production, temperature and fishing pressure ( Macias et al, 2015 ; Piroddi et al, 2017 ; Agnetta et al, 2019 ; Moullec et al, 2019 ). Recent studies ( Piroddi et al, 2015 , 2017 ), which coupled a food web model with an hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model, have highlighted the important role and impact of the environment and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing pressure) in shaping the dynamics of the Mediterranean marine resources.…”

Section: The Living Marine Resources: An Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When looking at forecast scenarios, a recent analysis conducted by Moullec et al (2019) , which coupled together a climate, biogeochemical and multispecies dynamic model, showed the response of the Med-LME to future scenarios of climate change (high emission scenario RCP8.5) ( IPCC, 2014 ) and fishing mortality (kept as observed in recent years). The results concluded that, between 2020 and 2100, increase in temperature and salinity will increment the total biomass and catch (2–15% and 0.3–5% respectively) of fish, mainly of pelagic thermophilic and/or exotic species having smaller sizes and low trophic level (e.g., sardines and anchovies).…”

Section: The Living Marine Resources: An Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The living marine resources in the Mediterranean Sea Large Marine Ecosystem

Piroddi

Colloca

Tsikliras

2020

Environmental Development

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Mediterranean Large Marine Ecosystem (Med-LME) is a heterogeneous system that, despite its oligotrophic nature, has high diversity of marine species and high rate of endemism, making it one of the world hotspots for marine biodiversity. The basin is also among the most impacted Large Marine Ecosystems in the world due to the combined multiple stressors, such as fishing pressure, habitat loss and degradation, climate change, pollution, eutrophication and the introduction of invasive species. The complexity of Med-LME in its structure/function and dynamics, combined with the socio-political framework of the region make management of its marine resources quite challenging. This contribution aims at highlighting the importance of the Med-LME, with an emphasis on the state of its food web and of its fish/fisheries using modelling tools and national/international reporting. The purpose is to demonstrate the importance of an holistic framework, based on stock assessments and ecosystem based modelling approaches, to be adopted in support of management and conservation measures for the preservation and sustainable use of the Med-LME resources.

show abstract

“…This integrated ecosystem model of Mediterranean marine biodiversity can provide valuable scientific support to fishery management strategy in light of the combined effects of fishing and climate change (Moullec et al, 2019).…”

Section: Potential Uses Of Osmose-medmentioning

confidence: 99%

Capturing the big picture of Mediterranean marine biodiversity with an end-to-end model of climate and fishing impacts

Moullec

Velez

Verley

et al. 2019

Progress in Oceanography

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Mediterranean Sea is one of the main hotspots of marine biodiversity in the world. The combined pressures of fishing activity and climate change have also made it a hotspot of global change amidst increasing concern about the worsening status of exploited marine species. To anticipate the impacts of global changes in the Mediterranean Sea, more integrated modelling approaches are needed, which can then help policymakers prioritize management actions and formulate strategies to mitigate impacts and adapt to changes. The aim of this study was to develop a holistic model of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea with an explicit representation of the spatial, multispecies dynamics of exploited resources subject to the combined influence of climate variability and fishing pressure. To this end, we used the individual-based OSMOSE model (Object-oriented Simulator of Marine ecOSystEms), including 100 marine species (fish, cephalopods and crustaceans) representing about 95% of the total declared catch, at a high spatial resolution (400 km2) and a large spatial scale (the entire Mediterranean basin)the first time such a resolution and scale have been modelled. We then combined OSMOSE with the NEMOMED 12 physical model and the Eco3M-S biogeochemical low trophic level model to build the endto-end model, OSMOSE-MED. We fitted OSMOSE-MED model with observed or estimated biomass and commercial catch data using a likelihood approach and an evolutionary optimization algorithm. The outputs of OSMOSE-MED were then verified against observed biomass and catch data, and compared with independent datasets (MEDITS data, diet composition and trophic levels). The model resultsat different hierarchical levels, from individuals to the scale of the ecosystemwere consistent with current knowledge of the structure, functioning and dynamics of the ecosystems in the Mediterranean Sea. While the model could be further improved in future iterations, all the modelling stepsthe comprehensive representation of key ecological processes and feedback, the selective parameterization of the model, and the comparison with observed data in the validation processstrengthened the predictive performance of OSMOSE-MED and thus its relevance as an impact model to explore the future of marine biodiversity under scenarios of global change. It is a promising tool to support ecosystem-based fishery management in the Mediterranean Sea. Highlights ► An End-to-End model (OSMOSE-MED) was built at the whole Mediterranean scale. ► One hundred marine species, representing 95 % of total declared catches, were embedded. ► OSMOSE-MED was fitted to observed and estimated data of biomass and catch. ► Results were consistent with current knowledge and observations on the system. ► The model can be used in support to fisheries management and biodiversity conservation.

show abstract

An End-to-End Model Reveals Losers and Winners in a Warming Mediterranean Sea

Cited by 67 publications

References 135 publications

Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models

Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models

The living marine resources in the Mediterranean Sea Large Marine Ecosystem

Capturing the big picture of Mediterranean marine biodiversity with an end-to-end model of climate and fishing impacts

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About