An Empirical Theory of the Development of Homicide within Individuals

Abstract

There have been many attempts to explain violent behavior, identify its causes, and predict its occurrence among youth and adults. Research and theoretical constructions have dealt with such far-ranging aspects as childhood health, peer and parental interactions, neuropsychological function, school and community support, and substance use and dependency. Theories have tended to focus on one or a few of these aspects, but there is an effort by many researchers to converge on an integrated approach. By demonstrating unique risk patterns in random samples of later-homicidal abused infants, children, and youth, violent and homicidal delinquents, and homicidal adults, five studies by Zagar and colleagues provide the best current empirical evidence for a view of the development of delinquency as a process of accumulating risks. These risks begin with prenatal substance exposure and continue with abusive or neglectful parenting, academic failure, court contacts, compromised executive function and resultant poor social functioning. Analysis by sex shows that males' and females' risks are virtually identical. Various theories are evaluated with respect to these empirical risk patterns for development of violence and homicide. A proposal for the necessary elements of a successful, overarching explanatory theory is offered.

Male and Female Juvenile Homicide Offenders: An Empirical Analysis of U.S. Arrests by Offender Age

“…In the largest published empirical investigation using clinical data to date, Zagar and his colleagues found only one significant gender difference in their sample of 16 girls and 218 boys arrested for murder in Chicago abuse (Zagar, Isbell, Busch, & Hughes, 2009). Female JHOs were significantly less likely to be involved in gangs than their male counterparts.…”

“…• raised in poverty j • raised in poverty g a Busch et al, 1990;Cornell, Miller & Benedek, 1988;Ewing, 1990;Heide, 1999;Labelle, Bradford, Bourget, Jones, & Carmichael, 1991;Myers et al, 1995. b Darby et al, 1998;Heide, 1992Heide, , 1999Heide & Solomon, 2006, 2009Hughes, Zagar, Busch, Grove, & Arbit, 2009;Lewis et al, 1985;Shumaker & Prinz, 2000;Zagar, Isbell, Busch, & Hughes, 2009. c DiCataldo & Everett, 2008;Fenderich, Mackesy-Amiti, Goldstein, Spunt, & Brownstein, 1995;Myers et al, 1995;Myers & Kemph, 1990;Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. d Busch et al, 1990;Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. e Heide, 1999;Shumaker & Prinz, 2000;Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. f Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. g Heide, 1999;Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. h Roe-Sepowitz, 2007, 2009 i Roe-Sepowitz, 2007, 2009Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. j Zagar, Isbell, et al, 2009. regarding younger JHOs includes no large-scale analyses of this specific offender group. Research on this population is limited and has been confined primarily to case studies, often within a clinical setting (Adelson, 1972;Bender, 1959;Bernstein, 1981;Carek & Watson, 1964;…”

Applying best treatments by using a regression equation to target violence-prone youth: a review1,2

“…In predicting homicide (Busch, Zagar, Hughes, Arbit, & Bussell, 1990;Zagar, Arbit, Sylvies, Busch, & Hughes, 1990 ), criminally violent family and relatives, physical abuse, gang membership, and alcohol and substance abuse were the statistically signifi cant risks. Zagar, Isbell, Busch, and Hughes (2009 ) showed that prior court contact, lower executive function (poorer decision making), infant illnesses, frequent home and school moves, and alcohol and substance abuse were the best predictors of homicide from infancy to adulthood. Zagar and Grove (2010 ) improved the accuracy of predicting homicide from records of up to 12 years of early childhood and youth risks in a sample of 1,127 youths to an Area under the Curve ( AUC) = .91 ( Fig.…”

“…Intercepting violence in the high schools is expected to lower homicide rates eff ectively, save lives, and reduce social and governmental costs ( Zagar, Isbell, Busch, & Hughes, 2009 ; .…”

“…From a developmental/sociological theory of homicide and violence, high school is the final key environment in the development of violent tendencies among youth (Zagar, Busch, Grove, & Hughes, 2009a; Zagar, Zagar, Bartikowski, & Busch, 2009; Zagar, Zagar, Bartikowski, Busch, & Stark, 2009). Intercepting violence in the high schools is expected to lower homicide rates effectively, save lives, and reduce social and governmental costs (Zagar, Isbell, Busch, & Hughes, 2009; Zagar, Zagar, Bartikowski, & Busch, 2009).…”